Four things to know as Yankees and Orioles face off: Gerrit Cole returns, Baltimore’s streak on the line, more

The two best teams in the American League will face each other this week at Yankee Stadium. The New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles in three games starting Tuesday night, and with the division rivals playing just 13 head-to-head games under the new, more balanced schedule, these games take on added importance. You only get so many chances to take care of business yourself.

Here are the AL East standings that will come into play on Tuesday:

1. Yankees: 50-24
2. Oriole: 47-24 (1.5GB)
3. Red Sox: 38-35 (11.5GB)
4. Blue Jays: 35-37 (14GB)
5. Rays: 34-38 (15GB)

The Yankees have been in sole possession of first place since May 14th and their current 1.5 game lead is their smallest since May 29th. That said, it’s still June and these two clubs are likely to be tied the rest of the way. Simply put, two of the best teams in the game will play three games this week.

Here are the details on the Orioles vs. Orioles series. This week’s Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Select games can be streamed on fuboTV (Try for free).

No Corbin Burnes or Grayson Rodriguez this week. There is also no Carlos Rodón or Marcus Stroman. Cole is back. He will make his season debut on Wednesday. He suffered nerve inflammation in his elbow during spring training and completed his rehabilitation assignment.

Here are now four things you should know ahead of the Orioles vs. Orioles series. This week’s Yankees, with a prediction included, why not?

1. The O’s lead the season series

The Orioles and Yankees met earlier this season at Camden Yards and the O’s took three of four. Here are the final scores:

Now that division rivals play just 13 times a year, the important number is seven. Win seven of 13 head-to-head games and you clinch the season series and therefore dominate the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker is important! The 2023 AL West and 2022 NL East were decided by tiebreakers. It’s something you’d rather have and not need than need and not have.

In the case of the 2024 AL East, the Orioles and Yankees are so good and so close that the tiebreaker could decide not only the division title, but also which team gets to play in the Wild Card series and which team gets a bye. The O’s just need to win four of their last nine games with the Yankees to secure the tiebreaker.

2. Cole will return this series

Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, will make his season debut on Wednesday. He struck out 10 and allowed one unearned run in 4 1/3 innings in his third rehab start on Friday, although the only number that really matters is 70. Cole threw 70 pitches in his third rehab start, after throwing 45 and 57 pitches in his first two rehab starts. It is almost fully stretched.

Cole has pitched very well in his three rehab starts, and at this point, he is simply increasing his pitch count and arm strength. He looks good and says he feels ready to go, so why waste bullets on minor league rehab games? Cole will likely have a pitch limit on Wednesday (80 pitches?), but he will return this week.

Right-hander Cody Poteet replaced Clarke Schmidt fell with one last tension two weeks ago. He has a 2.14 ERA in four starts this season and is likely to move down to secure a roster spot for Cole. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I bet they’ll say they’d love a blowout win on Tuesday so they could use Poteet for 3-4 innings to spare the rest of the bullpen.

Cole, 33, led the American League in innings (209), ERA (2.63), ERA+ (165), WHIP (0.98) and WAR (7.4) en route to unanimously winning the Cy Young in 2023 He is in the 5th year of a nine-year contract worth $324 million.

3. It’s been a while since the O’s lost an AL East series

Not since April 7th and 9th last season the Orioles lost a series to an AL East team. They lost two of three to the Yankees at Camden Yards in that series, and are 15-0-6 in 21 series against AL East teams since then. That includes 5-0-2 this season. Since the start of 2023, the O’s are 49-24 with a 95+ run differential against the other four AL East teams. That’s a 107-win pace against the toughest division in the game. The Yankees will look to end Baltimore’s streak against their AL East rivals this week.

4. Who is hot, who is not

Baseball is a sport of hot and cold tides. Daily and weekly consistency is a myth. As such, several players enter this week’s series swinging the bat better than others. Here are the Orioles’ best hitters over the last 15 days:

Santander started the season slowly (.712 OPS on May 31), but Tony Taters was one of the best hitters in the game in June. He has eight home runs this month, two more than any other player. Similar to Santander, Austin Hays has been great (.400/.464/.760 over the last 15 days) after a slow start to the season. These two form an already deep, much more dangerous lineup.

On the other end of the spectrum, Baltimore hasn’t gotten much from Ryan Mountcastle (.189/.259/.358 over the last 15 days) or Jorge Mateo (.154/.154/.385 over the last 15 days) lately. Cedric Mullins is having a nightmare season overall: .189/.240/.323. Center field is the only position Baltimore could significantly upgrade at the deadline. They are situated pretty much everywhere else.

Here are New York’s biggest hitters over the past 15 days:

That’s how the Yankees charted it, with these three leading the way offensively. Judge has gone nuclear in his last 50 games and Stanton has quietly recovered from disappointing 2022-23 seasons. Over the past 15 days, the Yankees have also gotten some great sneaky work from the catching platoon of Austin Wells (.278/.364/.444) and Jose Trevino (.308/.308/.654).

New York’s entire infield has lagged over the last 15 days: DJ LeMahieu (.167/.287/.167), Anthony Volpe (.128/.222/.231), Gleyber Torres (.188/.250/.375) and Anthony Rizzo (.128/. .222/.231) on the horn. Rizzo broke his arm in a collision at first base on Sunday and will turn to prospect Ben Rice to try to keep the train moving. It’s clear, though, that New York’s offense depends on its outfielders and DH.

Prediction

The Yankees are in first place, but the Orioles feel like the better team, especially when it comes to the depth of their one through nine lineup. I will predict the O’s win two of three by winning on Tuesday and then winning the battle of the bullpens on Wednesday before New York avoided a sweep behind Gil on Thursday. It was predicted.