2024 MLB draft: Who will Guardians take with No. 1 pick? Two-way SEC player, power hitters, more on the board

The Major League Baseball Amateur Draft is less than a month away. On July 14th, the Cleveland Guardians will be ranked No. 1 overall for the first time in franchise history. The Guardians are not total strangers to picking near the top of the draft: They have picked second on five occasions, most recently in 1992 when they signed right-hander Paul Shuey from North Carolina. Who will replace Shuey (and four others) as the most drafted player in franchise history?

At this point in the process, no one can say for sure. This includes the Guardians, who have ostensibly narrowed their list of candidates to a handful of names. Ask any honest scouting director and he will tell you that these decisions are rarely made in advance – especially in the Bonus Pool Era, and especially when there are several comparable, defensible players to choose from. The Guardians themselves probably won’t have an answer until the final hours.

The draft is no longer an exercise in choosing the best player. Nowadays it’s a math problem. Teams want to maximize the amount of talent they get for their money. Sometimes that means picking the best player, price be damned. Increasingly, however, teams are handing out money in hopes of landing a player who slips for financial reasons. Look no further than the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, and Pittsburgh Pirates for recent examples of this strategy, which we’ve come to call the portfolio approach. (Rolls right off the tongue, doesn’t it?)

Guardians director of scouting Ethan Purser, in his first year at the helm, will have the draft’s largest bonus pool at just over $18 million. The No. 1 pick has an allotted bonus of $10.57 million, but no player will demand that much: Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews, the first two picks last summer, became the first draftees to go over the $9 cap. millions. It’s also safe to assume the Guardians will take advantage of top-in-class prospects for even more savings that they can deploy later in the draft; Remember, Cleveland has two other top-50 picks at Nos. 36 and 48, meaning a well-executed approach could see them clear in the early stages of the draft.

With all that established, we here at CBS Sports wanted to highlight five players who will likely see their names released in connection with the No. 1 pick between now and July 14th. about their games and the reasons why they may (or may not) be the first choice when the Guardians make their decision.

Note that players are presented in order of their perceived chances of coming in first place.

1. 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State

We noted in our preseason draft rankings that other front offices believed the Guardians were in love with Bazzana, an optimized left-handed hitter with great feel for the barrel and oft-touted makeup. He subsequently posted a monster season, batting .418/.581/.939 with 26 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 39 more hits than strikeouts. There are valid reasons why Bazzana might not make the top spot this summer – namely the Guardians would prefer a different price for the player – but we have to imagine their affection for him and his game has only grown stronger. Other teams still think he will be the pick no matter what.

2. 3B/OF Charlie Condon, Georgia

Condon is one of the few players in the country who can claim to have surpassed Bazzana. He entered the spring seen as someone who could crack the top five; he did just that, batting .443/.558/1.043 with 35 home runs and 11 more walks than strikeouts. He has a more aggressive approach than Bazzana and some of the other top college bats in this class, but there’s no denying his innate strength or his ability to score fastballs. Condon has played a lot of third base and center field this season, and his stock could be higher in the Guardians’ eyes if they believe he can hold down either position, at least early in his big league career.

3. FUMIN JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia

Wetherholt, our No. 1 prospect entering the spring, suffered a hamstring injury during opening weekend that cost him about half the season. As a rival scouting director pointed out, this injury could have improved his chances of going to No. 1 if that would bring his price down to Cleveland’s liking. Wetherholt performed well when he could, batting .356/.500/.664 with eight home runs and five steals in 31 games. His polished offensive skill set is largely comparable to Bazzana’s, and he should also occupy second base despite spending the spring playing shortstop.

4. 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida

Caglianone is both the most intriguing two-way talent in the class and a polarizing prospect to predict the future. As a batsman, he has enormous strength and high-quality bat-to-ball skills that have allowed him to overcome a swing-happy approach; As a pitcher, his ability to reach the 90s was overshadowed by relief-caliber command. It seems reasonable to think that Caglianone will be asked to prioritize hitting at the next level, putting more pressure on him to refine his approach before more advanced pitchers have a chance to explore it. The Guardians have largely gravitated toward first-inning hitters with good plate discipline in recent years. Caglianone would be a change.

5. RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

There is a school of thought in progressive front offices, similar to those in Cleveland, that you shouldn’t take a pitcher in the first round because of his attrition rates and because it’s easier to develop pitching at the pro level; hence the Orioles and Rays combining to take a pitcher with their last 15 first-round or supplemental-round picks. (Remember, Purser, the aforementioned director of scouting, worked for the Rays’ scouting department before joining the Guardians.) The Guardians didn’t quite agree with that theory, drafting weapons with six of their last 10 first or supplemental shifts. . choices. As such, we can’t rule out the possibility that they will consider Burns, possessor of a top-notch fastball-slider combination and a 2.46 ERA in 95 innings, or perhaps even Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith. Still, if we had to guess — and, as we’ve established, that’s all we or anyone can do at this point — we’d say they’re unlikely to get an arm, given the bats available.