Brendan Miller
The UFC returns to Rio de Janeiro for the first time in 16 months on Saturday for UFC 301, with the main event featuring flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defending his title against up-and-coming Steve Erceg. The five-round battle anchors the UFC 301 main fight card (10 p.m. ET) at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The last time the UFC came to Rio de Janeiro was last January for UFC 283, which saw Jamahal Hill defeat Glover Teixeira for the vacant light heavyweight title in the main event. Pantoja will headline a UFC event for the first time, while Erceg, ranked 10th, is fighting for the title in just his fourth fight for the promotion.
Pantoja is a -190 favorite (risk $190 to win $100), while Erceg is priced at +160 in the latest UFC 301 odds. In the co-main event, Jonathan Martinez (-160) faces former champion José Aldo (+125 ) in bantamweight. Before finalizing any UFC 301 picks: Pantoja vs. Erceg, be sure to see MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani.
From analyzing film and closely following fighters and their camps, to tracking sharp action and betting market signals, Vithlani covers the entire breadth of the MMA betting landscape, from top to bottom. He also trains amateur boxers and regularly talks to MMA fighters to understand the nuances of the sport.
Vithlani made his SportsLine debut in January 2023 and won the UFC 283 main card with a 5-0 record and has been a consistent winner ever since. Over the last 10 UFC pay-per-view events, Vithlani has a 7-3 record on main event picks, and his main card selections over that span have netted his followers a profit of more than $1,200.
His highlights include an upset for Sean O’Malley (+210) against Aljamain Sterling (-250) at UFC 292 as part of a 4-1 main card and his UFC 299 winners included underdog selections in Dustin Poirier (+190 ) against Benoit Saint Denis (-230) and Michael Page (+110) against Kevin Holland (-130). Anyone who followed him saw massive returns.
Now, with UFC 301 in hand, Vithlani studied the card from top to bottom and revealed his top picks. You can only see your picks and analysis on SportsLine.
UFC 301: Pantoja x Erceg preview
Pantoja (27-5) is arguably the most decorated fighter on the UFC roster having never headlined a UFC event until now. For comparison purposes, light heavyweight Anthony Smith, a former title challenger who is also on the UFC 301 main card despite going 1-3 in his last four fights, has appeared in eight UFC main events.
Pantoja is 11-3 in 14 UFC starts since his debut in January 2017. Additionally, he is a combined 5-0 against top contender Brandon Royval and second-ranked Brandon Moreno, who is perhaps the most popular flyweight in history of the division.
The 34-year-old Brazilian’s struggle for recognition can be attributed to a discreet demeanor, almost absent of any self-promotion, and an effective but professional style that has led to few of the standout finishes that fans prefer. What’s more, the flyweight division has long been the least popular among UFC watchers.
However, an impressive title defense victory in front of a passionate hometown crowd could provide Pantoja with long-awaited recognition. But he will have to overcome an inspired prospect who is looking to make the most of a fortunate opportunity.
Although Erceg (12-1) has just three UFC fights under his belt and is ranked 10th in the rankings, he benefits from the lack of depth at flyweight and the promotion’s recent trend of fast-tracking dynamic prospects into title chases, especially those who have shown their products in other promotions.
Seeing that the two top flyweight contenders are already a combined 0-5 against Pantoja and no other fighter in the top 10 has a resume worthy of a title shot, the promotion turned to Erceg, a powerful puncher who is also a former Eterno champion. MMA promotion.
The 28-year-old Australian has earned performance bonuses in two of his three matches and is coming off a second-round knockout over experienced journeyman Matt Schnell. You can see more UFC 301 picks at SportsLine.
UFC 301 Predictions
We’ll share one of Vithlani’s UFC 301 selections here: he’s alongside Vitor Petrino (-520) to claim victory over Anthony Smith (+390) in their light heavyweight clash on the main card.
Petrino (11-0) is an explosive puncher who is widely viewed as one of the most promising prospects in a division lacking depth and in need of an infusion of new talent. The 26-year-old Brazilian slugger won his first four UFC fights, two of them by stoppage. He is coming off a decision victory over veteran Tyson Pedro in March.
Smith (37-19) is an eight-year UFC veteran and former title challenger who has managed to maintain a top-15 ranking despite losses in three of his last four fights, with the only victory coming by controversial decision divided over Ryan Spann. The 35-year-old Nebraskan has become better known for his self-aggrandizing takes on podcasts and media appearances than his work in the cage, but has expressed confidence that he is capable of disrupting the undefeated prospect.
“Smith has a solid all-around MMA game, but it will be a step too slow for the young, explosive prospect. Smith is coming off a brutal knockout defeat just four months ago and faces another formidable matchup,” Vithlani told SportsLine. You can see more UFC 301 picks at SportsLine.
How to make choices in UFC 301
Vithlani has strong picks for Pantoja vs. Erceg and other fights on the UFC 301 card. He is also backing a fighter who “is younger and more dangerous” to emerge with a dominant victory. These picks are only available on SportsLine.
Who wins UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth UFC 301 picks, all from the MMA expert who cashed in more than $1,500 on his 2023 UFC main card picksand find out.
UFC 301 odds, fight card:
See full UFC 301 picks, predictions and best bets here.
Alexandre Pantoja (-190) x Steve Erceg (+160)
Jonathan Martinez (-160) x José Aldo (+135)
Anthony Smith (+390) x Vitor Petrino (-520)
Michel Pereira (-535) x Ihor Potieria (+400)
Paul Craig (+410) x Caio Borralho (-550)
Joanderson Brito (-165) x Jack Shore (+140)
Brener Elves (+230) vs. Myktybek Orolobai (-285)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+345) vs.
Alessandro Costa (-125) x Kevin Borjas (+105)
Maurico Ruffy (-165) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+140)
