Brendan Miller
UFC fans have a lot to be excited about as UFC 300 approaches on Saturday. The card may not have the huge main event many fans were hoping for, but every fight on the card is exciting and meaningful and it’s hard to ask for much more as a mixed martial arts fan.
In the main event, former middleweight champion and current light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira will defend his title against former 205-pound champion Jamahal Hill. Hill is trying to regain the title he was forced to vacate after suffering a torn ACL while playing basketball during International Fight Week in 2023.
Additionally, women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili plans to make another title defense in the co-main event when she faces her compatriot Yan Xiaonan. Weili is in her second campaign as 115-pound champion and beating Amanda Leemos in her last appearance. Xiaonan, meanwhile, scored two victories to secure her title shot, including a first-round TKO over former champion Jéssica Andrade in her last appearance.
Even the preliminaries are loaded. The featured preliminary could secure a title challenger for the main event when light heavyweights Jiri Prochazka and Aleksandr Rakic collide. Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling is set to make his featherweight debut when he faces Calvin Kattar. Two-time Olympic gold medalist Kayla Harrison is set for her promotional debut when she takes on former bantamweight champion Holly Holm. And the first fight on the card is between two former champions, when Deiveson Figueiredo faces Cody Garbrandt in the bantamweight division.
With so much going on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our team’s predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 300 fight card, odds
- Alex Pereira (c) -130 vs. Jamahal Hill +110, light heavyweight title
- Zhang Weili (c) -360 vs. Yan Xiaonan +280, women’s strawweight title
- Justin Gaethje -230 vs. Max Holloway +190, “BMF” title – lightweight
- Arman Tsarukyan -240 vs. Charles Oliveira +200, lightweight
- Bo Nickal -2800 vs. Cody Brundage +1400, middleweights
- Aleksandar Rakic -135 vs. Jiri Prochazka +115, light heavyweight
- Aljamain Sterling -135 vs. Calvin Kattar +115, featherweight
- Kayla Harrison -450 vs. Holly Holm +350, bantamweight
- Diego Lopes -125 vs. Sodiq Yusuff +105, featherweight
- Jalin Turner -250 vs. Renato Moicano +205, light weights
- Marina Rodriguez -120 vs. Jessica Andrade +100, women’s strawweight
- Bobby Green -190 vs. Jim Miller +160, lightweights
- Deiveson Figueiredo -300 vs. Cody Garbrandt +240, bantamweight
With such a huge main event underway, the CBS Sports team has come forward with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your picks: Brent Brookhouse (combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer), and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 300 Picks and Predictions
| Pereira x Colina | Pereira | Pereira | Pereira | Pereira | Pereira |
| Zhang x Xiaonan | Zhang | Zhang | Zhang | Zhang | Zhang |
| Gaethje vs. Holloway | Holloway | Holloway | Gaethje | Gaethje | Gaethje |
| Oliveira x Tsarukyan | Oliveira | Oliveira | Oliveira | Oliveira | Oliveira |
| Nickal vs. | Nickel | Nickel | Nickel | Nickel | Nickel |
Pereira x Colina
Campbell: While this wasn’t the expected main event for such a historic card, the guarantee of fireworks and a knockout finish seems pretty inevitable. It’s also Hill’s former champion returning from injury to fight for the 205-pound title he never lost in the cage. But even though he’s only had seven UFC fights to date, Pereira’s advantage in overall combat experience in big fights could make a difference. Pereira carries his stamina late and has the perfect one-punch weapon in the form of a counter left hook.
Brookhouse: Hill has never scored a takedown in his UFC career, which suggests this is a pure striking fight. Who do you want to side with in a fight like this? Will you go with the former champion with good striking and heart who is coming off more than a year off and major surgery? Or would you prefer the odds of the world-class kickboxer with the greatest knockout power and best technique in the sport? Yes, me too.
Mahjouri: Pereira and Hill have the striking power and technique to end the night quickly. That’s why the odds are so close. Forced to pick a winner, I will side with the defending champion. Pereira is historically and statistically the best striker. The multi-sport, multi-weight champion has slightly higher striking and knockout percentages than his opponent. Hill insists his torn Achilles tendon is fully repaired but is still an X-factor, especially against a leg kicker of Pereira’s acumen. I suspect Pereira will finish in three rounds or less.
Zhang x Xiaonan
Campbell: In a landmark clash for Chinese MMA, the champion’s fight is definitely one to lose. Xiaonan is an accurate striker who is game and tested. She also just knocked out former champion Jéssica Andrade. But Zhang’s progress on the ground was key to her resurgence. Expect Zhang to use a steady stream of takedowns to take down Xiaonan in preparation for a submission win.
Brookhouse: Xiaonan is a dangerous striker, but Zhang is a little better technically. That said, Zhang’s wrestling game is much better than Xiaonan’s and the challenger doesn’t have the game behind her to deal with what the champion will bring after scoring the takedowns. If Xiaonan doesn’t catch the champion in striking, she will be run over.
Gaethje x Holloway
Campbell: This is not the same Holloway who last moved up to lightweight in a rematch with Dustin Poirier in 2019, which saw him rack up major damage in a memorable shootout. Yes, Holloway is older and has more mileage. But at 32, he’s still an elite force. And this time, now that he’s no longer the featherweight king, Holloway has added weight in a much more intentional way to increase his power. He has also been ostracized by many, which could go a long way in activating his competitive energy to surpass goals. Gaethje is big and scary, but Holloway has the footwork and skill to make him chase him. And the courage to endure whatever is necessary to overcome the turning point.
Brookhouse: Holloway’s move to 155 in this fight is coming in a much more measured and intelligent fashion than when he lost that fight at UFC 236 to Dustin Poirier. Gaethje is a bad man, for sure, and him winning this fight wouldn’t be a shock at all. Sometimes he fails to use his best assets in a fight, but Gaethje always manages to punch and his power is enough to potentially stop Holloway, even with Holloway’s incredible chin. Still, Holloway’s precision and volume of punches is something you don’t see often and in a five-round fight, Holloway can probably wear down Gaethje and win enough rounds on the scorecards to take the decision win.
Mahjouri: Holloway’s last move to lightweight was a disaster. Holloway, still the featherweight champion, faced Poirier for the interim lightweight title at UFC 236. The Hawaiian star didn’t adapt well. Holloway has always been a volume puncher, but his power looked weak at 155 pounds. He also struggled with durability. Holloway was repeatedly stunned in the fight. It’s a miracle he lasted the entire 25 minutes. Both Holloway and Gaethje are downplaying how revealing that fight was. I’m not convinced. Holloway looks more fulfilled this time, but he never gave up all at once. His movement, technical boxing and stamina will give Gaethje problems, but I have confidence in Gaethje’s punching power and leg kicks. I think Holloway is declining a little faster than Gaethje and there are a lot of unknowns about his potential at lightweight. I hope Gaethje makes it to the end in the third round.
Wise: While Holloway’s durability is otherworldly, it’s remarkable how much he takes hits. In almost every big fight he’s been in, Holloway has had to absorb tons of damage to score with his volume of strikes. Gaethje is also a volume attacker, but he has that one-punch power to dissuade Holloway from trying to fight on the inside. Gaethje’s leg strikes are some of the best in the sport and could take control of this fight if Holloway isn’t paying attention. Gaethje just has more ways to win this fight in five rounds.
Oliveira x Tsarukyan
Mahjouri: Tsarukyan is complete and has a lot of potential. Oliveira is an attacking dynamo who has seen and done it all. A big determinant of this fight is the degree of decline, if any, for Oliveira. I believe that Oliveira still has some great performances. “Do Bronx” has developed a sharp Muay Thai game to support his high-level submission game. The result is a relentlessly violent fighter who always manages to find the stoppage. Oliveira’s kryptonite is his outstanding defense. Statistically, Tsarukyan hits more than Oliveira, despite being hit almost half of the time. Tsarukyan knocked out Beneil Dariush within a minute. It was a very promising sample, but too small to know how he will perform against Oliveira. I think Tsarukyan can employ a similar combination of technical striking and superior control that Makhachev did to beat Oliveira. I’m just not ready to give up on the former champion yet. Oliveira via submission in Round 3.
Who wins UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth UFC 300 picksall from the MMA expert who made more than US$6,200, and find out.
