Brendan Miller
Former two-time title challenger Derrick Lewis will make his first Octagon appearance of 2024 on Saturday against rising contender Rodrigo Nascimento in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento. The scheduled five-round clash highlights the UFC’s main fight card, beginning at 7 p.m. ET at the Enterprise Center in St. Lewis is the all-time leader in heavyweight knockouts with 14, which it is also the highest mark in the promotion’s history, regardless of weight class. Lewis, ranked number 12, has lost four of his previous fights but remains a fan favorite. He faces Nascimento, a grappling specialist, number 15 in the rankings, who debuts as a main attraction with a run of four unbeaten fights.
Lewis is a -145 favorite (risk $145 to win $100), while Nascimento is priced at +125 in the latest UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. UFC odds. In the co-main event, Joaquin Buckley (-160) faces Nursulton Ruziboev (+135) in a welterweight bout. Before securing your picks for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Birth, be sure to see MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani.
From analyzing film and closely following fighters and their camps, to tracking sharp action and betting market signals, Vithlani covers the entire breadth of the MMA betting landscape, from top to bottom. He also trains amateur boxers and regularly talks to MMA fighters to understand the nuances of the sport.
Vithlani made his SportsLine debut in January 2023 and won the UFC 283 main card with a 5-0 record and has been a consistent winner ever since. Over the last 11 UFC pay-per-view events, Vithlani has a 7-4 record on main event picks and his main card picks in that span have netted his followers a profit of more than $1,200.
His highlights include an upset for Sean O’Malley (+210) against Aljamain Sterling (-250) at UFC 292 as part of a 4-1 main card and his UFC 299 winners included underdog selections in Dustin Poirier (+190 ) against Benoit Saint Denis (-230) and Michael Page (+110) against Kevin Holland (-130). Anyone who followed him saw massive returns.
Now, with UFC Fight Night: Lewis x Nascimento in sight, Vithlani studied the card from top to bottom and released his main selections. You can only see these picks on SportsLine.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis x Nascimento preview
Lewis (27-12-1) is a 10-year UFC veteran who is arguably one of the most popular fighters in the promotion’s history. This is due to his vast highlight reels inside and outside the cage. Lewis is known for his devastating power that has destroyed numerous opponents, but he is perhaps even better known for a dry, deadpan sense of humor that has led to more viral audio and video clips than perhaps any other fighter to don the fight kit of the UFC.
Still, the 39-year-old’s work inside the cage is nothing to laugh at. Although he was once considered a marketable journeyman with a limited ceiling, Lewis silenced his doubters by entering a phase where he won nine of 10 to earn his first title shot. He was submitted by former champion Daniel Cormier at UFC 230 in November 2018, a fight he fought a month before his previous appearance.
Lewis bounced back with a four-fight winning streak to earn his second title opportunity, but was stopped by Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight belt at UFC 265 in August 2021. Since then, he has gone 2-4 in six appearances to fall to the margin of the top 15.
Even so, Lewis presents a step up in the competition for Nascimento (11-1-1), who has yet to defeat or even face a ranked opponent in the UFC. What’s more, two of his four UFC wins have come via split decisions against marginal competition. The 31-year-old Brazilian’s last fight resulted in a decision victory over Don’Tale Mayes last November.
Nascimento is part of a new generation of heavyweights who stood out for their refined ground game, which was once a rarity in the division. Lewis once had a reputation for fighting strong wrestlers and grapplers, but has improved in this area as his career has progressed. In fact, one of Lewis’ most impressive victories came in a February 2021 knockout over Curtis Blaydes, considered one of the best fighters in heavyweight history. You can only see who to pick at UFC Fight Night here.
UFC Fight Night Predictions
We’ll share one of Vithlani’s UFC Fight Night picks here: He’s picking Veronica Hardy (-135) to raise her hand against JJ Aldrich (+115) in a women’s flyweight fight on the preliminary card.
Hardy (8-4-1) is the wife of former UFC title challenger Dan Hardy, who is now a noted MMA analyst. After a three-year absence from competition, the versatile prospect returned to the cage and went 2-0 last year, including a split decision victory over Jamey-Lyn Horth in December of last year.
Aldrich (13-6) is an eight-year UFC veteran who has compiled a 9-5 record in 14 starts while generally facing higher-level competition. She has won two in a row and is coming off a decision win against Montana De La Rosa last October.
“Hardy has always had grappling skills, but his striking has also improved. His kickboxing technique is compact and his footwork is smart,” Vithlani told SportsLine. See who else can return here.
How to make choices in UFC Fight Night
Vithlani has strong choices for Lewis vs. Nascimento and other fights on the UFC Fight Night card. He’s also backing a fighter who “has a lot of experience against a wide variety of styles” to emerge with a dominant victory. These picks and Vithlani’s full analysis are only available on SportsLine.
Who wins UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth UFC Fight Night picks, all from the MMA expert who cashed in more than $1,500 on his 2023 UFC main card picksand find out.
UFC Fight Night odds, fight card:
See all the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and best bets here.
Derrick Lewis (-145) x Rodrigo Nascimento (+125)
Joaquin Buckley (-160) vs.
Alonzo Menifield (+215) vs Carlos Ulberg (-265)
Diego Ferreira (+260) x Mateusz Rebecki (-310)
Sean Woodson (-195) vs. Alex Cáceres (+165)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+165) vs.
Chase Hooper (+115) vs.
Esteban Ribovics (-180) vs.
Tabatha Ricci (-140) vs.
Billy Goff (+145) vs. Trey Waters (-175)
Veronica Hardy (-135) vs.
