Brendan Miller
A stylistic clash in the heavyweight division serves as the backdrop for the main fight of UFC Fight Night, on Saturday, between two-time champion Derrick Lewis and the promising Rodrigo Nascimento. The scheduled five-round battle anchors the UFC’s main fight card, beginning at 7 p.m. ET at the Enterprise Center in St. Lewis, ranked No. 12, is the most prolific knockout artist in UFC history, with 14 knockouts being the most in the history of the division and promotion. Lewis has lost four of his last five, but will look to get back on track against No. 15-ranked Nascimento, a talented grappler who will face a ranked opponent for the first time in his UFC career.
Lewis is a -145 favorite (risk $145 to win $100), while Nascimento is priced at +125 in the latest UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. UFC odds. In the co-main event, Joaquin Buckley (-160) faces Nursulton Ruziboev (+135) in a welterweight bout. Before securing your picks for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Birth, be sure to see MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani.
From analyzing film and closely following fighters and their camps, to tracking sharp action and betting market signals, Vithlani covers the entire breadth of the MMA betting landscape, from top to bottom. He also trains amateur boxers and regularly talks to MMA fighters to understand the nuances of the sport.
Vithlani made his SportsLine debut in January 2023 and won the UFC 283 main card with a 5-0 record and has been a consistent winner ever since. Over the last 11 UFC pay-per-view events, Vithlani has a 7-4 record on main event picks and his main card picks in that span have netted his followers a profit of more than $1,200.
His highlights include an upset for Sean O’Malley (+210) against Aljamain Sterling (-250) at UFC 292 as part of a 4-1 main card and his UFC 299 winners included underdog selections in Dustin Poirier (+190 ) against Benoit Saint Denis (-230) and Michael Page (+110) against Kevin Holland (-130). Anyone who followed him saw massive returns.
Now, with UFC Fight Night: Lewis x Nascimento in sight, Vithlani studied the card from top to bottom and released his main selections. You can only see these picks on SportsLine.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis x Nascimento preview
Lewis (27-12-1) is a 10-year UFC veteran who is arguably one of the most popular fighters in the promotion’s history. This is due to his vast highlight reels inside and outside the cage. Lewis is known for his devastating power that has destroyed numerous opponents, but he is perhaps even better known for a dry, deadpan sense of humor that has led to more viral audio and video clips than perhaps any other fighter to don the fight kit of the UFC.
Still, the 39-year-old’s work inside the cage is nothing to laugh at. Although he was once considered a marketable journeyman with a limited ceiling, Lewis silenced his doubters by entering a phase where he won nine of 10 to earn his first title shot. He was submitted by former champion Daniel Cormier at UFC 230 in November 2018, a fight he fought a month before his previous appearance.
Lewis bounced back with a four-fight winning streak to earn his second title opportunity, but was stopped by Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight belt at UFC 265 in August 2021. Since then, he has gone 2-4 in six appearances to fall to the margin of the top 15.
Even so, Lewis presents a step up in the competition for Nascimento (11-1-1), who has yet to defeat or even face a ranked opponent in the UFC. What’s more, two of his four UFC wins have come via split decisions against marginal competition. The 31-year-old Brazilian’s last fight resulted in a decision victory over Don’Tale Mayes last November.
Nascimento is part of a new generation of heavyweights who stood out for their refined ground game, which was once a rarity in the division. Lewis once had a reputation for fighting strong wrestlers and grapplers, but has improved in this area as his career has progressed. In fact, one of Lewis’ most impressive victories came in a February 2021 knockout over Curtis Blaydes, considered one of the best fighters in heavyweight history. You can only see who to pick at UFC Fight Night here.
UFC Fight Night Predictions
We’ll share one of Vithlani’s UFC Fight Night picks here: he’s picking Sean Woodson (-195) to raise his hand against Alex Caceres (+165) in a matchup of featherweight prospects on the main card. Woodson (11-1-1) is a versatile prospect who earned his spot on the roster on the strength of a flying knee knockout of fellow UFC prospect Terrance McKinney on “Dana White’s Contender Series.” The versatile 31-year-old St. Louis native has gone 4-0-1 in his last five starts, although two of those victories have come via split decisions, including his victory over Charles Jourdain in January.
Cáceres (21-14-1) is an eight-year UFC veteran who has made a late comeback in which he has won seven of his last nine fights. But the 35-year-old Miami native is hoping to bounce back from a decision loss to rising prospect Giga Chikadze last August. “Cáceres is a veteran featherweight with explosive striking and dangerous submissions. However, Cáceres has faltered against higher-caliber opposition. Woodson is a smart fighter who remains solid defensively and knows how to score points,” Vithlani told SportsLine. See who else can return here.
How to make choices in UFC Fight Night
Vithlani has strong choices for Lewis vs. Nascimento and other fights on the UFC Fight Night card. He’s also backing a fighter who “has a lot of experience against a wide variety of styles” to emerge with a dominant victory. These picks and Vithlani’s full analysis are only available on SportsLine.
Who wins UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth UFC Fight Night picks, all from the MMA expert who cashed in more than $1,500 on his 2023 UFC main card picksand find out.
UFC Fight Night odds, fight card:
See all the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and best bets here.
Derrick Lewis (-145) x Rodrigo Nascimento (+125)
Joaquin Buckley (-160) vs.
Alonzo Menifield (+215) vs Carlos Ulberg (-265)
Diego Ferreira (+260) x Mateusz Rebecki (-310)
Sean Woodson (-195) vs. Alex Cáceres (+165)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+165) vs.
Chase Hooper (+115) vs.
Esteban Ribovics (-180) vs.
Tabatha Ricci (-140) vs.
Billy Goff (+145) vs. Trey Waters (-175)
Veronica Hardy (-135) vs.
