UFC 302 predictions — Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, expert picks

UFC 302 takes place on Saturday in Newark, New Jersey, and a huge lightweight title fight is at the top of the card. Champion Islam Makhachev continues his run to prove he is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport by defending his title against fan favorite Dustin Poirier.

Poirier is looking to finally add a world championship reign to his legendary career after failing in his two previous attempts at the lightweight title. Poirier had a run as interim champion, but the asterisk of never winning a world title will forever remain a mark against him in debates about his place on lists of the greatest fighters of all time.

Makhachev has shown a dominance reminiscent of friend and trainer Khabib Nurmagomedov since suffering a shocking knockout defeat in 2015. He is now on a 13-fight win streak and coming off back-to-back title defenses over fellow pound-for-pound elite Alexander Volkanovski .

In addition to the big main event, former middleweight champion Sean Strickland returns to action for the first time since losing the title when he faces former title contender Paulo Costa.

With so much going on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our team’s predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 302 fight card, odds

• Islam Makhachev (c) -625 vs. Dustin Poirier +450, lightweight championship
• *Sean Strickland -250 vs. Paulo Costa +205, middleweights
• Kevin Holland -290 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +235, middleweight
• Alex Morono -265 vs. Niko Price +215, welterweight
• Randy Brown -180 vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +155, welterweight
• Cesar Almeida -120 vs. Roman Kopylov +100, middleweights
• Grant Dawson -500 vs. Joe Solecki +380, lightweights
• Jake Matthews -155 vs. Phil Rowe +130, middleweights
• Jailton Almeida -320 vs. Alexandr Romanov +250, heavyweights
• Bassil Hafez -400 vs. Mickey Gall +310, middleweights
• Ailin Perez -180 vs. Joselyne Edwards +155, women’s bantamweight
• Andre Lima -270 vs. Mitch Raposo +220, flyweight

With such a huge main event underway, the CBS Sports team has come forward with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your picks: Brent Brookhouse (combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer), and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 302 Picks and Predictions

Makhachev vs Poirier

Campbell: As good as the potential feel-good story of Poirier scoring a title upset already looks, Makhachev remains a poor style matchup for the veteran striker. Poirier was dominated on the ground in both of his previous title losses, each by submission to former champions Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. Makhachev, who will see the return of Nurmagomedov to his corner this weekend, is equally good (if not better) at using his striking to make efficient submission attempts. Although Poirier has promised a knockout, Makhachev is operating at a much more complete level than his more famous opponent.

Brookhouse: In this week’s Best Bets, I suggested running Poirier as a good decision. I really think there is value in it with how broad the line is. But finding value in lines and exploiting them over time, with wins offsetting losses, is very different from starting a head-to-head fight. Poirier is a great fighter, but he is a great fighter with a lot of miles on his body and for whom a fighter like Makhachev is simply a terrible matchup. Poirier doesn’t do a good job defending the takedown so when the fight is on the feet he needs to score and score a lot. Makhachev has become a dangerous striker, but he is not as dynamic as Poirier. But Makhachev should be able to perform takedowns more or less at will. On the field, Poirier was dominated by men with great top games and Makhachev is that. Although most viewers are rooting for Poirier and the fairytale ending, this appears to be Makhachev’s fight to lose.

Mahjouri: There is a reason why many consider Makhachev to be the best pound-for-pound fighter alive. His grappling is extremely powerful and he is very responsible defensively. Even more terrifying are his impressive improvements. There’s a lot to unpack in his knockout victory over Alexander Volkanovski, a fight the latter faced on 11 days’ notice, but it was impressive nonetheless. Makhachev’s coach believes the champion is a better striker than Poirier. That’s a statement we can properly examine on Sunday morning. Either way, Makhachev’s fierce fighting, finishing skills and impressive defense combine extremely well against Poirier, a striker with a history of defensive fighting lapses. That’s what makes a Poirier upset so exciting, but I don’t think it will come to fruition. Makhachev by submission.

Strickland x Costa

Campbell: Despite losing three of his last four fights early on (against elite competition), Costa has been quietly evolving his skills and now fights with a much more patient and focused attack. He will need all of these improvements as an underdog in the betting against Strickland, who would still be middleweight champion if not for a disputed split decision loss to Dricus du Plessis in January. Although Strickland is much more skilled than his opponent, he tends to get into fights at times due to his pressure style. Expect Costa to put this current streak behind him, scoring the kind of breakthrough knockout that takes a fighter like Strickland out of true title elite and back into regular contender status.

Brookhouse: Strickland does a good job employing a simple offensive boxing approach that works in conjunction with a tight defensive structure to make landing clean shots on him a chore. Costa has good power, but we haven’t seen him produce a shot for himself in almost six years. Strickland is durable and better at controlling the action than Costa, leaving little reason to think Costa will fight the type of fight he would most like. If Strickland is on his game, it will be a prolonged and patient defeat for the former champion.

Mahjouri: Strickland’s approach is very defensive for a fighter who preaches violence. Costa lives up to his nickname “The Eraser”. Strickland’s team hopes to keep the former champion off the fence and take control of the fight in the final stretch. Strickland is much more experienced in five-round fights, lasting 25 minutes on six occasions. Costa’s only decision in five rounds was a loss to Marvin Vettori. Costa’s reputation arguably improved with his decision loss to Robert Whittaker in February. Costa seriously injured Whittaker at the end of the first round and caused him a lot of pain for 15 minutes. Costa lost to the technically superior fighter, but appears to be striking an effective balance between strength, pressure and shot selection. Costa is unlikely to win on the scorecards, but I think the lack of respect for Strickland’s power will encourage Costa to knock him out in three rounds.