Caleb Harris
The New England Patriots are embarking on a new era in franchise history and hope to turn the tide in the process. Bill Belichick and Mac Jones are out, and Jerod Mayo and Drake Maye are in. It’s been a seismic off-season for the Patriots and this new regime is now tasked with getting them back on a winning trajectory after a 4-13 season in 2023.
As NFL releasing their full schedule for the 2024 regular season, it’s time to see what the future of this group will look like. We already knew next year would be daunting, with Sharp Football Analysis noting that New England has the second-toughest schedule in the league based on its opponent’s projected win total. This likely reflects why the team’s current win total at FanDuel Sportsbook is just 5.5 games.
Below, we’ll look at New England’s entire 18-game slate, highlight key games, the club’s toughest stretch, and finally, go game-by-game to predict how this season will go.
Full 2024 Schedule
Key observations from the schedule
- The Patriots will play an international game for the second consecutive season when they travel to London to face the Jaguars.
- No goodbyes week after the London game.
- Tough challenge from the start (three of the first four games away from Foxborough).
- End-of-season matchups with the Buffalo Bills (Week 16 and Week 18).
- Last possible farewell week.
- No games currently scheduled in the “Sunday Night Football” or “Monday Night Football” windows.
Hardest stretch
- Week 1 at Bengals
- Week 2 vs. Seahawks
- Week 3 at Jets
- Week 4 at 49ers
Right at the beginning of filming, the Patriots are involved in this. In the first month, they will be away from home for three of their four games, and none of these away clashes will provide any relief. One of these games (Week 3 vs. Jets) is also a short week, with the game being played in the “Thursday Night Football” window. Cincinnati, New York and San Francisco are viable Super Bowl contenders when healthy, which is simply not where the Patriots are currently. Even hosting Seattle at Gillette Stadium for their Week 2 home opener will be a challenge. While Geno Smith doesn’t have the ceiling that the other quarterbacks they will face in their opening month, he is more than capable of beating Brissett or Maye.
Five unmissable clashes
Patriots x Jaguares (week 7) – One of the new features of the schedule release is that the Patriots will embark in 2024. They will go to Wembley Stadium, in London, to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. This international setting and the 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff will be new to fans and should give the team a chance to pull off the upset. While he won’t be a starter in Jacksonville, there’s also the story of Mac Jones in this matchup after the former first-round pick was traded by the Patriots to the Jags this offseason.
Patriots at Bears (Week 10) – While many notable quarterbacks will face the Patriots in 2024, this game in Chicago will draw particular interest. As long as Drake Maye can secure the starting job at this point in the year, two of the best quarterbacks drafted this spring will face off. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams has already been named the Bears’ starter and Maye — the third overall pick — will have a chance to showcase his potential against one of his classmates.
Patriots at Jets (Week 3) – The Patriots – along with most of the NFL – didn’t get the chance to see Aaron Rodgers as a member of the Jets last season after he suffered a torn Achilles tendon in Week 1. Rodgers appears to be on track to be ready for the start of the year, which sets the stage for this “Thursday Night Football” showdown against the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Aside from the matchup against a division rival, this is also the only primetime game currently on New England’s schedule.
Patriots vs. Texans (Week 6) – This may not be the most competitive game, as some like the Texans to emerge from the AFC as sleepers, but it is an intriguing matchup for the Patriots. Houston represents exactly what New England should be looking for. They signed DeMeco Ryans last year and drafted CJ Stroud in the top three of the 2023 draft, and had instant success. While this is easier said than done, taking a closer look at this model wouldn’t hurt.
Patriots on Titans (Week 9) – I’ll be curious to see if there’s any bad blood between Patriots and Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. New England aggressively pursued the veteran free agent this offseason but ultimately lost out to Tennessee. Even if there are no direct fireworks, Ridley’s performance in this game will certainly create many stories. This is also a winnable game on a tough schedule.
Game-by-game predictions
Here’s a quick game-by-game prediction with a brief reasoning behind the prediction:
- Week 1 at Bengals: Loss – This is a tough draw from the start, as the Bengals are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with Joe Burrow healthy. New England is nowhere near that level at this stage. — (0-1)
- Week 2 vs. Seahawks: Loss – I think New England could be brave in this game, but Seattle has dynamic players on offense and a defensive coach, Mike MacDonald, who should negate any real threat of an upset. — (0-2)
- Week 3 at Jets: Loss – As long as Aaron Rodgers doesn’t suffer another injury, the Jets are far more talented than the Patriots on almost every level. Defense can give Maye/Brissett fits. — (0-3)
- Week 4 at 49ers: Loss – San Francisco was playing in the Super Bowl last season and arguably has the best roster in the league. This could be ugly. — (0-4)
- Week 5 vs. Dolphins: Loss – Tua Tagovailoa has routinely given the Patriots attacks and I don’t expect that to change here. Miami is one of the fastest offenses in the league and New England still doesn’t have the horses to keep up with it. — (0-5)
- Week 6 vs. Week 6 Texans: Loss – If all goes well for the Patriots in 2024, they hope to replicate what the Texans did last year with DeMeco Ryans and CJ Stroud. Judging by the position of these lineups now, however, Houston has more edge upside. — (0-6)
- Week 7 vs. Week 7 Jaguars (in London): victory — What is that? A victory? … In London? Yes! At this stage of the season and after going through a challenge of opponents, leaving the USA could do a lot of good for Jerod Mayo and this team. That translates into an upset against the Jags. — (1-6)
- Week 8 vs. Week 8 Jets: Loss – Again, as long as the Jets have Rodgers running the show on offense, they will be a tough matchup for the Patriots. Even leaving Rodgers aside, New York’s defense is undoubtedly its biggest strength. — (1-7)
- Week 9 on Titans: Victory – This could be another spot where the Patriots could come away with a win. Tennessee surrounded Will Levis with a lot of talent this offseason, but it remains to be seen if the second-year QB can put all the pieces together. If he’s suffering a sophomore slump, New England could pounce on Nashville. — (2-7)
- Week 10 at Bears: Loss – At this point in the year, I could see Caleb Williams getting into a rhythm. Chicago’s defense was also great down the stretch in 2023 and could have a strong year in 2024, which is not good news for the Patriots. — (2-8)
- Week 11 vs. Week 11 Rams: Loss – Sean McVay vs. a rookie coach and rookie quarterback seems about as unbalanced as possible. – (2-9)
- Week 12 at Dolphins: Loss – The AFC East is as daunting as it has been in recent memory and the Dolphins should be in the midst of a playoff run when the Patriots come to town, so there will be no let-up. — (2-10)
- Week 13 vs. Week 13 Colts: victory – Similar to New England, Indy is in transition with a young quarterback and the way Anthony Richardson played last year, it’s no guarantee he’ll be healthy for this game. Even if he is, I like the Patriots’ chances at home. – (3-10)
- Week 14: Bye
- Week 15 at. Cardinals: victory – New England will be fresh after a much-needed week off, giving them an edge over Arizona, who will be coming off a divisional showdown with the Seahawks. — (4-10)
- Week 16 at Bills: Loss – Buffalo arrives at the end of this year’s season. With the Bills possibly still competing for playoff position, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. – (4-11)
- Week 17 vs. Week 17 Chargers: Loss – Jim Harbaugh will make the Chargers play hard from corner to corner, and Justin Herbert is a clear mismatch with Drake Maye at this point in the rookie’s career. – (4-12)
- Week 18 vs. Week 18 Bills: Victory – Could get lucky here with the Bills having nothing to play for and enter the offseason on a winning note. – (5-12)
