Can Jets’ revamped O-line protect Aaron Rodgers? Why veteran QB is in position to thrive behind upgraded unit

What a difference a year makes. This time last offseason we were talking about the Jets Super Bowl expectations with Aaron Rodgers. After he ruptured his Achilles on the fourth play of 2023 NFL season, the conversation is more like: Will Rodgers be able to stay on the field in 2024?

The Jets’ revamped offensive line will play a big role in making fans’ dreams come true. So maybe we can start talking about the Jets ending their long playoff drought, or even contending for a championship.

Their offensive line was in shambles last season after being a huge talking point in the offseason. The Jets had 13 different starters, the most in the league. They also ranked in the bottom five in pressures (280), hits (129) and sacks allowed (64).

There’s no way the Jets can keep 40-year-old Rodgers healthy coming off a torn Achilles with that kind of O-line production.

Jets offensive line last season

Some of these numbers will naturally drop with a quarterback like Rodgers who gets rid of the ball quickly, unlike the Jets 2023 quarterback group. But this number is really telling and shows that the New York O-line’s poor numbers weren’t just the a product of defenders holding the ball too long and inviting pressure.

The Jets ranked 30th in ESPN’s pass-blocking win rate metric last year. They use NFL Next Gen Stats technology to track how often a team’s offensive line holds for 2.5 seconds, roughly the average time for a quarterback to pass. If even one pass rusher breaks through the line within that time frame, it will be a loss for the offensive line. Well, the Jets pass rush win rate was 50%. It was a coin toss as to whether they would defend their quarterback on any given play.

You can see why general manager Joe Douglas has made reforming the group a priority. Here’s what the Jets did:

There are three new starters between Moses, Smith and Simpson, plus Fashanu can replace if (and when) Smith gets injured. The Jets’ first-round pick was especially telling, as they opted to take OT Fashanu over TE Brock Bowers.

Reporting from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler illustrates where the Jets’ priorities lay: “The feeling around the league is that the Jets were pretty set on taking Penn State’s Olu Fashanu at No. 10 overall…unless the Washington receiver , Rome Odunze, was available,” says Fowler. “People I talked to believe the Jets would have targeted Odunze, although they correctly perceived Chicago was taking him there. Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was a consideration for the Jets, but not a major one.”

Ultimately, the Jets enter offseason workouts with a much better offensive line than last year, especially at offensive tackle. Tyron Smith had the best pass blocking grade among all OTs last season, according to Pro Football Focus. He replaces Mekhi Becton, who was below average last year, at left back. Smith has only played 45% of games over the past four seasons, which is why Fashanu is a good insurance policy. He had the fourth-best pass blocking grade among offensive tackles in college football last year.

Morgan Moses was an above-average right tackle last year (if you look at PFF grades or ESPN win rates) and represents a huge jump from the Jets’ 2023 right tackle committee, which included below-average games. average of Max Mitchell, Carter Warren, Billy Turner, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Becton.

The Jets O-line was among any team’s biggest needs this offseason. Remember, Rodgers played behind some great units in Green Bay. The Packers ranked in the top half of the NFL in pass blocking by PFF in 13 consecutive seasons from 2010-22, including the top seven in each of their last nine years there.

The Jets are now in a position to compete at a higher level in the trenches in 2024. It’s critical as Rodgers is obviously no longer a nimble chicken and his declining numbers against pressure in recent years show that. From 2021-22, he ranked third in EPA per play when NOT pressured, but 25th when pressured. This is a Jekyll and Hyde act similar to turning Josh Allen into Mac Jones in terms of playing caliber.

2021-22 Aaron Rodgers

Keeping Rodgers standing would also go a long way toward engaging his new supporting cast. We have yet to see what Rodgers and Garrett Wilson are capable of together. Additionally, the Jets brought in former Chargers Mike Williams and drafted Malachi Corley in the third round. Corley has led the NFL in yards after catch the past two years and should be a good complement to Wilson and Williams on the outside.

Many stars need to align for the Jets to realize the Super Bowl expectations most had for them in 2023. It all starts with Aaron Rodgers’ health, followed by the performance of the offensive line.

The last eight Super Bowl champions have ranked in the top half of the league in pass blocking rating. This type of production has to be the goal in New York.