Caleb Harris
NFL Season win totals are some of the most fun stocks to bet on – it’s a season-long bet with weekly intensity because of how important each game is to the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, winning totals have been released for some time now, but we can’t really get crystallized, concrete numbers until the NFL Schedule is released.
With the schedule defined and all angles of 2024 NFL season under scrutiny, we can finally start betting on season-long win totals. I’ll revisit them in August before the season starts, but we’ll try to find some value early in the offseason.
I am using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should research and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check out the rest of the divisions here as soon as they are released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we begin, a few quick notes. First, we are picking all teams, but not betting on all teams. Second, any best bets will be indicated in bold, etc. Third, you should probably avoid betting on overs at this point, due to how quickly injuries can change a player’s fortunes. NFL teams.
Let’s go.
AFC South
Above 9.5 (-140) / Below 9.5 (+120)
This won’t be a popular opinion, but there may be more reason to worry about the Texans than the general consensus that exists. Let’s start with Houston’s 2023 season, which is highlighted primarily by a historic debut performance from CJ Stroud. The Texans were one of the best stories of the season, but they also went 7-3 in one-score games and overcame their point differential by almost an entire game. This team had a losing record in November after falling to the Panthers (!).
Just like the 2022 Jaguars, they went on a rampage down the stretch against some questionable teams and won the division before defeating Joe Flacco in a playoff game. I think Stroud is amazing and DeMeco Ryans has great staying power. They added Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter in the offseason and only lost a few players on defense.
I’m bullish on the Texans, but not to the extent of the market: Stroud is 12-1 to win MVP and this is a very high win total for a team that is now tied for first place with the Chiefs, Cowboys and Ravens notably on the scoresheet along the stretch. At this point in the offseason, I would lean toward the under with more money, knowing the Texans could win nine games, the division and I would still make money without spending anything.
Lean: Less than 9.5 (+120)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Above 8.5 (-110) / Below 8.5 (-110)
The hype for the 2023 Jaguars has gotten out of control. Sheeple as Pete Prisco chose Jacksonville to do the Super Bowl and Trevor Lawrence to win the MVP. What world! The Jags started 6-2 and were 8-3 after defeating the Texans in Week 12. They were a dead lock to win the division… until they didn’t and melted down for a 9-8 finish that the left out of the postseason. The Jags went 3-5 in one-score games and were essentially tied with their point differential. They lost Calvin Ridley this offseason, but added Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. to help Lawrence expand the field.
One of the big differences between last year’s first and second is in the schedule: the Jaguars draw the Raiders and Browns, while the Texans are with the Chiefs and Ravens this year. I don’t love the Jaguars this year, but improvements on defense and a bounce-back season from Lawrence could equal nine wins again pretty easily. It’s a decent low buy point, but I also wouldn’t bet it just yet.
Slim: Over 8.5 (-110)
Above 8.5 (+105) / Below 8.5 (-125)
I’m definitely bullish on the Colts at this price. Anthony Richardson’s health will be a topic of discussion, as it should be. But Shane Steichen has gotten the most out of quarterbacks wherever he goes and if Richardson stays on the field, this offense will be a problem, especially with a healthy Jonathan Taylor, a fully paid-up Michael Pittman, a second-year Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell added to the wide receiver depth chart. Laiatu Latu gives them another big pass rush play and 28th-ranked Gus Bradley’s defense can’t be much worse than last year. The third-place schedule means matchups against the Giants, Broncos and Steelers…just the best possible draw of all three AFC South divisional matchups. The Colts exceeded their full-game win expectation and went 6-3 in one-score games last year, which is a concern for a potential slide. But they did it with Gardner Minshew under center; obviously if Joe Flacco had to start multiple games my opinion would change (maybe). There’s a real chance for a hot start, plus a Week 14 buyout and a great four-game close here. With more money I would definitely be at an advantage.
Choice: Over 8.5 (+105)
Over 6.5 (+110) / Below 6.5 (-135)
In fact, it’s annoying that the total isn’t a little lower: The Titans could easily be a 5.5-win team instead of 6.5, though the additional money is intriguing with a new coaching staff. Brian Callahan brings a very nice offensive resume and, perhaps more importantly, brings his father Bill Callahan, one of the best offensive line coaches in league history. The running game with Tony Pollard added to Tyjae Spears could be better than people think. Treylon Burks was Tennessee’s top option two years ago, he is now Will Levis’ fourth option behind Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd. The large room suddenly becomes very loud. Defensively, there’s enough going on where you can squint and see the Titans as competitive – L’Jarius Sneed is a very good addition to the secondary, but the Titans will need the surprising pick of T’Vondre Sweat to pay off quickly and early. I’m nervous that Mike Vrabel is getting the most out of this roster, but I’m optimistic about Callahan. A Week 5 bye is so tough and last year’s last-place finish resulted in matchups against Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers, the Bengals (!) and Dan Quinn’s Commanders. Just an unfortunate draw. I just wish the win total was lower. I would definitely take a 5.5 if we had one.
Lean: Titans under 6.5 (-135)
