Caleb Harris
While we haven’t seen a super-busy carousel of veteran quarterbacks this offseason like we saw a few years ago, a small collection of established veterans will be playing in new places this upcoming season.
Of course, Kirk Cousins signed another fully guaranteed deal, this time with the Falcons. Gardner Minshew, who got an extremely long and very successful initial tryout with the Colts in 2023, is now with the Raiders. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields will have a very intriguing quarterback battle in Pittsburgh.
Drew Lock is going to support Daniel Jones, right? RIGHT?! The same thing happened with Sam Howell for Geno Smith in Seattle. Truth be told, I included each of these strong passers in this article because there’s at least a reasonable chance they’ll play more than mop-up snaps in 2024.
What will these veteran passers bring to the field for their new teams? Here’s a summary.
What Cousins brings: Stability and consistency to position
Since the start of 2022, in 25 starts, Cousins has had 17 contests with a quarterback rating of at least 90 to just three with a rating below 75. He’s basically the anti-Desmond Ridder.
Because it was Ridder who, in 19 games – 17 starts – over the last two years in Atlanta, had eight games with a rating below 75 to five games with a rating above 100.
On a more granular level, before his Achilles injury last season, Cousins had the third-highest rating in the league — 105.8 — inside the pocket. His inside-the-pocket rating of 102.3, starting in 2018 when he joined the Vikings, is the seventh-highest in football during that span.
Now, we all know about Cousins’ primetime issues, but I think more than anything else, the Falcons signed Cousins for the stability he will undoubtedly bring from inside the pocket, operating the scheme as it was intended.
In his six seasons at Minnesota, Cousins’ completion rate ranged from 65.9% at the lower level to 70.1% at the upper level. He was above 7.0 yards per attempt every season, and his yards per game average ranged from 240 to 290. Although he is not an elite quarterback and a passer with mobility deficiencies, arm strength and aggressiveness that at times times hurt him, Cousins is a machine with his above-average stability in the production department.
Now, what Falcons brass likely foresee is getting “classic” Kirk in 2024 and that being enough to elevate the offense to a respectable level not seen since the Matt Ryan era, and that being enough, with an underrated defense, to beat a weak NFC South Much crazier things have happened to teams that have missed the playoffs before.
What Wilson brings: Direct talent
We all know that Wilson is not at his peak. Even the highly confident Wilson probably knows this. He doesn’t make miracle plays as often while escaping as he did during the height of his Seahawks tenure.
But even an expected closer-to-average career twilight regression for Wilson in that now-vital element of playing the quarterback position will make him much more of a weapon when play fails than any of the Steelers’ quarterbacks since Ben Roethlisberger retired. .
In 2023, Kenny Pickett completed nearly 56% of his throws outside the pocket at just 4.8 yards per attempt with one touchdown and no interceptions. Mason Rudolph was 5 of 9 for 14 yards when pushed beyond the friendly confines of the past in his solid relief appearance last season.
Wilson has thrown nine touchdowns (!) without a pick outside the pocket in 2023. He’s averaged a respectable 8.1 yards per attempt in those scenarios. This could be a new element to Pittsburgh’s offense not seen since the Roethlisberger era.
What Minshew Brings: A veteran version of Aidan O’Connell
When it comes to getting rid of the football, Minshew and O’Connell are nearly identical. Both had some of the lowest average throw rates in football last season. They are also comparatively accurate. Minshew’s adjusted completion rate was 74.2% in 2023. O’Connell’s was 74.0%
They are equally athletic and have arms that, at best, would be considered NFL average.
What Minshew can bring to the Raiders goes beyond numbers. It’s all about his experience. The week of preparation, understanding how defenses will try to disguise specific blitzes and coverages in specific scenarios. Sliding protections on certain looks, etc.
The mental aspect of being a professional quarterback, of course, is very important in the NFL, and Minshew can separate himself from O’Connell by leveraging the knowledge his experience has given him or, simply, passing that knowledge on to O’Connell as he develops as you enter year 2.
What Lock brings: Arm talent, aggression
Lock was a second-round pick in 2019. Don’t be fooled into thinking he has a second-round arm. He absolutely doesn’t. His arm is first-round caliber, and the aggression button is permanently on when the former Missouri Tiger is on the field.
The latter should be a welcome addition to the Giants’ passing game. Before his injury in 2023, Daniel Jones’ average depth of target (aDOT) was 6.9 yards, tied for second among 40 qualified quarterbacks. Even in 2022, when the Giants won a playoff game with Jones as the starter, their aDOT was 6.5, the lowest in football.
Lock has a cannon, he knows it and he uses it. His career aDOT on nearly 800 throws is 9.2 yards, and in two relief appearances, plus some late-game assignments in 2023, it is 8.5 yards. Why does this matter? Well, of course, being a quality quarterback is much more about throwing yourself deep. But it is vital to stretch defenses horizontally It is vertically, and Lock could do the latter for the Giants.
What Howell Brings: Dual Threat Capability
Howell has yet to see a play he can’t make. In his 18 NFL starts, he made a series of impressive throws – and interceptions.
But in Seattle, Geno Smith played much more like the West Virginia version of himself than the New York Jets version. Lots of inspiring throws from all three levels of the field. I expect Seahawks training camp to have the most underrated aerial displays on a daily basis in the entire NFL. Smith and Howell can really spin this.
Athleticism is where Howell can add a component to the Seahawks offense. While he needs to control some recklessness as a runner with ball security and health in mind, he is absolutely a bigger leg threat in his mid-20s than Smith is in his 30s.
On 48 rushing attempts at Washington last season, Howell forced 21 missed tackles, fifth-most among all defensive backs. Smith rushed 37 times and forced four missed tackles. The difference on the ground between the two defenders is clear as day.
