Caleb Harris
O NFL the offseason did not disappoint. It rarely happens. The training carousel was in full swing, highlighted by Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL. The QB merry-go-round was also moving. Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins switched teams. A record six QBs were drafted in the top 12. The commercial market was busy. The Bills moved Stefon Diggs. The Chargers traded Keenan Allen. Running backs were actually highly sought after, just ask Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. Some all-time greats have also called it a career (Jason Kelce and Aaron Donald).
As we analyze all the big moves, it is almost impossible to predict how these transactions will develop. Case in point, who thought Wilson would explode in Denver but Baker Mayfield would thrive in Tampa Bay? I’m sure that when any move is made, the team has a positive view of how things could turn out if everything went the right way. Let’s call it the best case scenario.
Well, here’s the best case scenario for seven teams that made big moves this offseason. Obviously, the best case scenario would be for each team to win one Super Bowlbut let’s keep things realistic!
Derrick Henry helps propel the Ravens to the Super Bowl
Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry have never played in the Super Bowl. This is a crime. So naturally, the best-case scenario for the 2024 Ravens would be Jackson getting over the hump thanks to the addition of Henry.
The fit is obvious. Jackson’s lightning-fast speed should open up plenty of lanes for Henry’s thunderous runs. The Ravens lead the NFL in yards before contact per rush, as the Jackson and Henry drafts are third in yards after contact per rush over the same period. On paper, they’re the perfect complement that could give Baltimore the right formula to finally get over the hump in January.
In the Ravens’ AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs, their running backs combined for six carries for 23 yards. That won’t solve it. Although Henry has been on the decline in recent years, he still has strength and should be an upgrade over Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Co.
Saquon Barkley wins a title run
Jackson and Henry aren’t the only electric QB-RB duo joining forces. The Eagles signed Saquon Barkley to pair with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ loaded offense. Sound familiar? Does an extremely talented but injury-prone RB go from a bad team to a title contender? Christian McCaffrey laid out a plan that the Eagles hope Barkley can follow. CMC won the rushing title and Offensive Player of the Year in 2023 following a mid-season 2022 trade from the Panthers to the 49ers.
Barkley is definitely capable. He finished fourth in rushing (1,312 yards) in 2022, Daniel Jones’ last healthy season, when the QB eclipsed 700 yards on the ground. Barkley will now be paired with a more dangerous running back in Hurts, in a more dangerous offense and with a better line, even with the retirement of Jason Kelce. The Eagles ranked third in run-block ratings last year, while the Giants were third-worst, per PFF.
By the way, there has only been one QB-RB duo in NFL history with 500 and 1,500 rushing yards (respectively) in the same season. Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris to Washington in 2012. I could definitely see Hurts and Barkley joining this company in 2024.
Caleb Williams becomes Bears’ first QB with 4,000-yard season
The Bears are the only franchise that has never had a QB with 30 touchdown passes or 4,000 yards in a season. One of the most intriguing statistics will come to an end in this best-case scenario, because Caleb Williams inherits the best supporting cast for a No. 1 overall pick QB ever.
He’s already the first QB drafted in the top five to inherit multiple 1,200-yard receivers as a rookie. That’s with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. He will also have Rome Odunze, who led the nation in receiving yards at Washington last year. That trio has a combined 4,247 receiving yards in 2023.
Chicago will also go from one of the top-heavy offenses to one of the top-heavy offenses under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who comes over from Seattle. My only concern is that the Seahawks used more than three wide receivers at the 18th highest rate in the NFL (64%) last year despite having a trio of star WRs among DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Hopefully, Chicago’s big three will be on the field together for much longer and Williams will start his career with a big rookie season.
Chargers outpace opponents by 500 yards
The best-case scenario for the Chargers is to outpace their opponents by 500 yards this season, which would put them among the top six teams in the NFL. The Chargers lost five of their top six receivers from the Justin Herbert era (2020-23) this offseason between Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett and Jalen Guyton. Some of this was intentional, as Jim Harbaugh wants a physical football team, a philosophy supported by the team’s decision to trade Allen and Williams but keep Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The Chargers also took OT Joe Alt fifth overall over WR Malik Nabers, who went sixth.
The 49ers led the NFL in rushing yard differential (+3,022) in four seasons with Harbaugh (2011-14) and the Chargers were second-worst in that category (-1,896) in four seasons since Herbert’s hiring. In other words, sending a goodbye kiss to the soft Chargers team that had no balance in attack and allowed all teams to collapse on defense. Expect a physical football team that mirrors the intensity of their new coach. The Chargers’ plan to beat QBs like Patrick Mahomes in the AFC is great QB play, ball control and limiting turnovers. The Chargers could be prepared to do that in 2024, and that starts with controlling the line of scrimmage and imposing their will on opponents.
Patrick Mahomes wins third MVP award with deep ball renaissance
The Chiefs made one of the highlights of the draft by trading with the Bills for WR Xavier Worthy and his combined NFL-record 4.21 40 time. They also signed former first-round pick WR Marquise Brown (4.27 40 speed) this offseason, giving Kansas City a suddenly speedy WR group again with Worthy, Brown and Rashee Rice — if he avoids NFL discipline.
The best outcome for the Chiefs (other than another Super Bowl) is a return to MVP form for Mahomes after his career-worst (regular) season in 2023. Mahomes’ evolution is incredible (he’s won two Super Bowl MVPs in two seasons since the Tyreek Hill trade), but I think we can all agree that the best version of Mahomes is the one who also faces the constant threat of the big play. Mahomes has two touchdown passes of more than 20 air yards in the last two seasons after throwing for 41 in 2018-21. He had the worst TD-INT ratio in the entire NFL targeting WRs with 10+ passing yards in 2023 (1-6).
The lack of a downfield threat combined with defenses trying to take away the deep ball has caused Mahomes to rely more on checkdowns, but in a perfect world, the Chiefs’ new WR trio will open things up. Now, 40 times doesn’t always translate into success in the NFL (i.e. John Ross), but there is a scenario where Mahomes wins his third MVP thanks to a deep ball renaissance.
The Bills probably won’t replace the lost production of Stefon Diggs (and Gabe Davis to a lesser extent) with just one player. After all, the only WR on the roster who has ever caught a pass from Josh Allen is Khalil Shakir. It will take a village between rookie Keon Coleman, Shakir in the slot, as well as versatile tight end Dalton Kincaid and Co.
This can be done? Yes. If the Chiefs can win back-to-back titles after trading Tyreek Hill, perhaps Buffalo can survive without Diggs. Allen is no Patrick Mahomes, but hey, Diggs isn’t exactly Hill either. Buffalo’s best-case scenario without Diggs is to follow the formula that saw them erase a three-game AFC East deficit last year with five games to play. A commitment to the run game, fewer Allen turnovers and a balanced passing attack. A realistic goal for Buffalo is to have a trio of 800-yard receivers for the first time in team history between Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid.
Falcons have Pro Bowl QB, RB, WR and TE
There are more obvious worst-case scenarios for Atlanta thanks to a crowded QB room between Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr., but let’s focus on the positives! Atlanta needs a return on its large investment in offensive skill positions. They picked a QB, RB, WR and TE in the top 10 in four consecutive drafts and signed Cousins to a four-year contract worth $180 million.
The Falcons’ best-case scenario is the Pro Bowl seasons of Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The last team with a Pro Bowl QB, RB, WR and TE in the same season was the 2022 Vikings with Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson. So it’s not at all unlikely.
How can this happen? Getting rid of Arthur Smith and bringing in Cousins is a great start. The Falcons have had the second-lowest pass rate (49%) over the past two seasons, while Cousins has had the team’s highest pass rate (65%) of any QB in that span with Kevin O’Connell. Cousins could replicate his production in a new uniform, as he will work with another Sean McVay disciple in OC Zac Robinson.
