Caleb Harris
NFL Season win totals are some of the most fun stocks to bet on – it’s a season-long bet with weekly intensity because of how important each game is to the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, winning totals have been released for some time now, but we can’t really get crystallized, concrete numbers until the NFL Schedule is released.
With the schedule defined and all angles of 2024 NFL season under scrutiny, we can finally start betting on season-long win totals. I’ll revisit them in August before the season starts, but we’ll try to find some value early in the offseason.
I am using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should research and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check out the rest of the divisions here as soon as they are released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we begin, a few quick notes. First, we are picking all teams, but not betting on all teams. Second, any best bets will be indicated in bold, etc. Third, you should probably avoid betting on overs at this point, due to how quickly injuries can change a player’s fortunes. NFL teams.
Let’s go.
AFC West
Above 11.5 (-110) / Below 11.5 (-110)
Pretty simple rule here: bet against Andy Reid in Kansas City at your own risk. Last year was the first time since taking over KC that Big Red managed to fall below his win total, and he did so by just half a game, winning 11 games with a few inexplicable losses (at home on Christmas to the Raiders, at home to start the season as defending champions) and with the worst offense the Chiefs have had since he took over (I think). They lost L’Jarius Sneed, but bolstered the receiving corps by adding Marquise Brown in free agency and Xavier Worthy in the first round of the draft. Both guys bring a much-needed speed element to the roster, with the Chiefs largely unable to stretch the field since Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami. I hope for a season of recovery from this attack. Even if the division is better with Jim Harbaugh taking over for Brandon Staley and the Chiefs have a tough schedule for first place with everyone wanting to dethrone their chance at a three-peat, this is a pretty clear oversight to me. There is no need to bet now as I highly doubt we will see the real number increase.
Pick: Bosses over 11.5 (-110)
Over 8.5 (-155) / Under 8.5 (+130)
How much of an upgrade is Jim Harbaugh over Staley in Los Angeles? I think everyone is underestimating what a big difference this will make. The last time Jim joined a NFL team he secured a Grantland (!) article by Bill Barnwell titled “The most valuable person in the NFL“This was partially rooted in the lack of a salary cap for coaches, but Harbaugh is SUCH a good coach. He just wins wherever he goes. The Chargers are also a good team, although the roster certainly has its holes to deal with this offseason. But Harbaugh decided to let the defense rest, keeping Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa and taking control of the offensive end by trading Keenan Allen and releasing Mike Williams and parting ways with Austin Ekeler’s deep tackle that will likely reduce Justin Herbert’s counting stats while increasing his. efficiency. Don’t sleep on how good Ladd McConkey can be or what Harbs can do for someone like Quentin Johnston in terms of “saving” (he’s been in the league one year, come on) his career. look here and would actually be interested in the sale at this price if it were closer to the season.
Choice: Chargers above 8.5 (-155)
Las Vegas Invaders
Over 6.5 (-135) / Under 6.5 (+115)
The Raiders have some of the biggest question marks in the NFL. What will an interim head coach like Antonio Pierce be like in the full-time role? Can Gardner Minshew win as a starter again? Will Minshew beat Aidan O’Connell? What will happen to Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer? Is Luke Getsy the guy you want running your offense? There’s more than enough here to be bullish on that side of the ball if the OC and QB click. Defensively, the Raiders were a top-10 team last year, but repeating that seems like a tall order, even if Pierce’s smarts as a coach and communicator on that side of the ball ultimately hold up. They underperformed in their points difference last year, with a manager sacking them mid-season. I’d be inclined to lean here, but these numbers are up for a reason: the schedule is pretty manageable even though the division is SO tough and the NFC South could be better this year too. If they stay with the same team for a full season, they were on the home stretch under Pierce and will find their way to seven wins. I’m a little hesitant to pull the trigger at this price.
Lean: Raiders under 6.5 (+115)
Over 5.5 (-135) / Under 5.5 (+115)
To Bo Nix or not to Bo Nix? That is the question. Sean Payton pulled the trigger on the longtime college QB with the 12th overall pick in the draft and he will start Week 1. Or SHOULD…if Nix is benched when the season starts, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong for the Broncos and this offense. I saw someone point out that Payton is recreating the 2017 Saints offense — or at least trying to — with the 2024 Broncos, just doing a very poor version of it. If he can coach the offensive line, it might work, but that’s one of the big differences between these teams. Also… no, Alvin Kamara! He was very good! So did Marshon Lattimore, one of their two first-round picks, and while Patrick Surtain II is exceptional, I’m not sure this defense suddenly fits like the 2017 Saints team. Remember, New Orleans had 7 -9 three years in a row before becoming a “winning” team (and not just a great offense) in 2017. The Broncos get three of their first four on the road, negating their early-season Mile High advantage (patent pending) and close with the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs after a late bye. I’m still excited about Payton as a player and coach, so I’ll lean here, but I’ll wait and see what happens, similar to the Raiders. I think you could easily flip the flop on these two teams and their totals based on head-to-head matches.
Skinny: Broncos over 5.5 (-135)
