Caleb Harris
This year, we saw six quarterbacks go in the first round for just the second time in the last 40 years. It was also the first time that six were in the top half of the draft.
But this year’s class wasn’t full of elite, near-perfect quarterbacks. Caleb Williams certainly screams “future NFL star” and Jayden Daniels had a historic season at LSU reminiscent of Joe Burrow, but even those two have deficiencies that need to be addressed.
Each of these six quarterbacks has different offenses, schemes, and supporting casts that they will need to immediately adapt to or grow into early in their career.
In my estimation, the team’s landing spot is probably between 25-30% of why a young quarterback will succeed in the NFL, with arm talent, accuracy, football IQ, and demeanor making up the rest. And each of these six quarterbacks follows a very different path toward their NFL future.
Caleb Williams (Bears)
Even more than some of the other quarterbacks below, the Bears’ offense will focus entirely on what Caleb Williams wants and needs to do to be successful.
Chicago’s new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, utilized motion and formation changes frequently during his time in Seattle, forcing defenses to adjust their initial pre-snap cues. He does a great job of keeping defenses a little unsure of their pre-snap responsibilities while also allowing isolation opportunities for his best playmakers.
In Chicago, Williams’ ability to improvise and confidence in off-field work will be his calling card, but Waldron and Williams developing trust in each other early could allow Williams to stay in the pocket, take advantage of movement and changes to getting playmakers like DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in 1-on-1 situations makes big plays easier for Williams than they were at USC in 2023.
Kliff Kingsbury will be able to leverage his experience with Caleb Williams at USC in 2023, along with his coaching of Arizona Cardinals mobile quarterback Kyler Murray, to help shape the identity of the Commanders offense with Jayden Daniels, their QB1 during the 2024 draft cycle, in charge.
Kingsbury will utilize Washington’s run game, likely with more of a gap scheme, which is a great fit for Brian Robinson Jr. Still, the offense will be largely, if not entirely, shotgun, utilize RPOs, and ask Daniels to finish consistently on short and mid-range throws, something he was dominant at at LSU.
The really exciting part of this pairing will be when Daniels gets comfortable with Kingsbury and the bevy of vertical receivers he has in Washington. Kingsbury hasn’t consistently been able to make the in-pocket vertical game work consistently enough in Arizona, and if Kingsbury can leverage his experience there and maximize the tremendous deep ball that Daniels has developed in 2023, this offense could quickly become one of the three best passing attacks in the NFL.
While Alex Van Pelt didn’t officially call plays for the Browns a season ago, he played a major role in the offense’s play design and offensive strategy a year ago. And in New England, he’ll have a chance to really develop his offensive philosophy with Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett, as well as his bevy of receivers.
Van Pelt valued a heavy attack for his defenders, giving them windows and relying on timed releases to be successful. This wasn’t always Maye’s strong point in college, but it’s an area he improved upon throughout his college career, and Maye will have plenty of time to learn and develop behind Brissett, whose high football IQ, excellent patience and confidence and positioning on the long boom make it an ideal fit.
And when Van Pelt and the Browns offense were really functioning at their best, the offense got their quarterback on bootlegs and throws, and generally groomed them to be dual-threat passers with vertical potential. That’s the future where Maye, with excellent deep ball potential and clear run upside, can thrive over time.
It may be a few years before we see Michael Penix Jr. on the field for the Falcons (assuming Kirk Cousins doesn’t have any setbacks with his injury), but Zac Robinson’s long-term offensive vision should maintain Penix’s strengths in mind.
Fortunately, Penix and Cousins share similarities. For one, they can be highly accurate on the perimeter and down the field when placed in the pocket. Both have a natural sense of timing and perimeter routes, and when synchronized with their receivers, can produce verticals at a very high rate. Robinson wants to run faster and keep the offense moving, likely with a lot of 11 players and utilizing the speed threats they added this offseason (Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore) both horizontally and vertically. Penix will benefit from sitting back and watching Cousins, but will likely be able to adapt and fit in quickly as Robinson’s offense is similar to the one he ran in Washington.
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Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota’s play-action defender and also the head coach, loves attacking the middle of the field using timing and different route concepts, as well as a heavy dose of play action.
Minnesota attacked the middle of the field as much as any team during O’Connell’s tenure, and JJ McCarthy operated at his best at Michigan by targeting pocket-breaking inside routes and outside of play action. The Vikings have played the most games of any NFL team in 2023, and McCarthy has completed more than 75% of his throws between the hashes at Michigan in 2023.
While it will be Sam Darnold’s team to start the year, and ideally for the Vikings, it will be Darnold for the entire season – as that would mean the season was a success – whenever McCarthy starts to play, he steps into the best offensive set up of any quarterback. newbie this year.
Many people, including those within the Broncos organization, have already begun to draw comparisons of Bo Nix to Sean Payton’s last premier quarterback, Drew Brees. And that comparison is probably the hope when Denver took him 12th overall.
Nix thrives on the way Sean Payton wants his quarterbacks to thrive: accuracy between 5-15 yards, smart timing and a patient pocket passer, a quarterback who can be efficient and not turn the ball over, and someone with a high football IQ to grow and eventually take over the attack as a game manager with high quality ball positioning.
How Payton can maximize Nix’s ability in an offense that, based on last year, has playmakers but lacks cohesion will be the challenge. Nix, Denver’s presumptive starter in just over three months, will have to adjust quickly, become confident and be in charge of Payton’s offense to make up for his lack of experience and elite traits to begin his career.
