Ranking NFL’s most vulnerable division winners for 2024, from sturdy Chiefs to shaky Cowboys

Every year, the NFL standings they are a showcase of the league’s parity. History tells us that at least some playoff spots will change hands regardless of the previous year’s results. The same can be said of the NFL eight divisions; in 2023, for example, half of them had different champions than the previous season.

So who is best suited to retain the division title in 2024? And who is most likely to lose it? Here’s our roundup of the most vulnerable current champions, from the most resilient to the most unstable:

2023 Record: 11-6 | Division title sequence: 8 seasons

The last time someone other than the Chiefs won the West, Alex Smith was the KC team’s MVP, Eric Berry was the Comeback Player of the Year and Peyton Manning was the quarterback for the Denver Broncos. There have been many versions of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes team since then: the historic big-play powerhouse, the suffocating defensive juggernaut, etc. No matter how you slice it, the Chiefs reign supreme, and that should continue in 2024, with Mahomes boasting additional receiving depth downfield and Steve Spagnuolo’s physical defense largely intact. Denver has a rookie signal-caller with Sean Payton still implementing his designs, the Las Vegas Raiders still don’t have a bona fide quarterback, and while the Los Angeles Chargers should be more disciplined under Jim Harbaugh, they are counting on a lot of new pieces around Justin Herbert.

2023 Record: 12-5 | Division title sequence: 2 seasons

Three years after the Los Angeles Rams literally won the Super Bowl, their rival 49ers have established themselves as one of the safest bets at the top of the league. Kyle Shanahan’s offense was esteemed even before Brock Purdy’s rise, but the young signal-caller elevated the entire setup with back-to-back MVP-level outings. Add elite weaponry and a resilient defense that may have gotten even better on offense thanks to low-cost free agent additions, and it’s hard not to imagine a third straight West crown for the defending NFC champions. The Arizona Cardinals are still in the early stages of their rebuild, the Seattle Seahawks are adjusting to a new coach in Mike Macdonald, and while the Rams have reignited offensive energy in 2023, they are still dependent on the health of aging Matthew Stafford at quarterback.

2023 Record: 10-7 | Division title sequence: 1 season

The unlikely and explosive debut of quarterback C.J. Stroud and new head coach DeMeco Ryans quickly put the Texans in the Super Bowl conversation – so aggressively, in fact, that we could soon be verging on overkill for Houston in a division that saw rival Jacksonville Jaguars advancing in the playoffs just two seasons ago. But his playmakers are legitimate, and Ryans’ defense should be more imposing after costly free agency. The Jags, meanwhile, have struggled to turn raw talent into reliable results, with the flashy but mercurial Trevor Lawrence undergoing something of a makeover at wide receiver this offseason. The Tennessee Titans have improved a lot around Will Levis, but they remain something of a wild card. And the Indianapolis Colts are betting big on Anthony Richardson, who played all four NFL Games.

2023 Record: 12-5 | Division title sequence: 1 season

That the Lions are unmistakable favorites speaks to the progress overseen by the Dan Campbell-Brad Holmes regime, which has patiently built around Jared Goff to the point that the former Rams once again registers as a reliable, borderline starter among the Top 10. The balance of their roster is enviable, with a dynamic backfield and an explosive No. 1 receiver, not to mention a defense filled with new secondary talent. Why, then, are they not forced to repeat at the top of the North? Each team in this quartet have reason to believe they will be better! The Green Bay Packers could have an MVP-type gunslinger in Jordan Love. The Minnesota Vikings are giving rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy elite weapons and a defense led by Brian Flores. And even the Chicago Bears, with No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, have an updated offensive infrastructure.

2023 Record: 13-4 | Division title sequence: 1 season

There’s a case to be made, the Ravens are one of maybe five teams with the total package of offense and elite defense to challenge a Lombardi in 2024: reigning MVP Lamar Jackson now has Derrick Henry as a working complement in the backfield, and the stingy defense still has physical studs at every level. But like the NFC North, this division is fraught with potential interwire competition. The Cincinnati Bengals should be back in title contention as long as Joe Burrow remains standing behind a beefed-up offensive line. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who refuse to bottom out, at least have multiple options at quarterback to use the trademark hard “D” deployed by Mike Tomlin. And the Cleveland Browns may depend on Deshaun Watson’s revival, but they have an updated insurance plan and a shaky defense.

2023 Record: 11-6 | Division title sequence: 4 Seasons

Other than the Chiefs, no team has held the division title longer. Which has to count for something, though many were up in arms this off-season when the Bills eliminated Josh Allen’s receiving corps, not unlike KC once did around Mahomes. The reality is that as long as Allen is there at full strength, Buffalo will be a tough out. We may also be discounting Dalton Kincaid as the main outlet for their offense. Even so, the competition can be fierce. The New York Jets are putting all their eggs in the Aaron Rodgers basket once again, but if the 40-year-old former MVP can actually stay on the field, they will have star talent on both sides to make a real run. The Miami Dolphins have to overcome obstacles of cold weather and big games, but their speed on the track remains dangerous. And the New England Patriots’ rebuild might be a little better with Jerod Mayo at the helm.

2023 Record: 9-8 | Division title sequence: 3 seasons

Believe it or not, the Bucs have the third-longest streak of division titles in the NFL. Adding to their prospects, the South is still relatively weak, and they’ve secured basically every key piece from their surprisingly scrappy 2023 campaign, including Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. On the other hand, they’ve actually improved instead of simply choosing to “go back”? The Atlanta Falcons don’t project to be world champions, but with a firmer hand at center in Kirk Cousins, their young weapons and the defense now led by Raheem Morris could quickly challenge the throne. The New Orleans Saints, who refuse to rebuild, could always hang around thanks to Dennis Allen’s defense. And the Carolina Panthers, frankly, can’t be much worse than they were in 2023, with Dave Canales now running the show.

2023 Record: 13-4 | Division title sequence: 1 season

Wait, seriously? Are the Cowboys, who have some of the best playmakers on both sides of the ball, the most likely to lose the division title? The Cowboys who won 12 games in three consecutive seasons? Look, if Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons propel Dallas to another playoff run, no one will be surprised. But this is a team that has consistently struggled to get over the hump, a team that could end up applying additional pressure to Prescott in a contract year, and has also done very little to truly improve the roster this offseason. The rival Philadelphia Eagles, in turn, are emerging from a historic collapse, but still boast world-class talent, as well as a new player who could trigger a jump back into title contention. The New York Giants are still rebuilding, but the Washington Commanders could also use more energy with former Cowboys assistant Dan Quinn inheriting a young, dynamic signal-caller in Jayden Daniels. The biggest cause for concern in Dallas: The NFC East hasn’t had a repeat champion since the 2001-2004 Eagles. This quartet is simply destined for rotation.