Projecting when Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and other rookie quarterbacks make their first NFL starts

The way for NFL Stardom is not the same for all rookie quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes spent almost his entire first season as Alex Smith leading the Chiefs, while eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud was a revelation from the start.

In total, nine rookie quarterbacks have made at least one start during the 2023 season. Looking into the crystal ball, here’s when fans should expect this year’s six first-round selections to make their respective NFL premieres:

There is no drama in the Windy City. Williams has already been named the starting quarterback in Chicago. The organization has been preparing for his arrival long before he was drafted No. 1 overall. Former first-round selection Justin Fields was traded to Pittsburgh, leaving Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien and Austin Reed as his primary competitors.

Williams is taking every opportunity to spend time with his teammates on and off the field. When training camp arrives, he will receive all starting reps as the Bears prepare for the 2024 season.

Projection: September 8 vs. Titans (Week 1)

Washington has a little more trouble going Jayden Daniels’ way, starting Week 1 with the presence of veterans Marcus Mariota and Jeff Driskel. However, it would be a shock if it weren’t for the LSU product on the field ushering in the Dan Quinn era. Daniels is a dual-threat quarterback and that mobile skill set will buy him time as he becomes more comfortable with the speed of the game and understands how quickly the windows close at this level.

Mariota started 13 games in 2022 for the 7-10 Falcons. Before this exposure, he hadn’t played since October 2019, his last season with the organization that drafted him. Daniels was selected second overall, as was Mariota.

Projection: September 8 at Buccaneers (Week 1)

New England is a bit of a complicated situation. Jacoby Brissett is the best quarterback so far. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he held Maye through the entire 2024 regular season. Brissett signed a one-year deal in New England; potentially serving as an opportunity to show that he deserves another opportunity to start in this league. Brissett is the consummate teammate and will hand over the keys to Maye whenever that moment inevitably arrives.

The franchise won’t get its bye until Week 14, so it’s a little late in the season to experiment. The trade deadline is Nov. 5, so it wouldn’t be shocking if Brissett was traded, which opens Week 10 against Caleb Williams and the Bears to be Maye’s first NFL start. The Patriots are not expected to thrive this season, so they could move on to Maye at any time.

It is assumed that Brissett will remain in this scenario and Maye would make his debut on November 17th at home against the Rams. Four of the last seven games have been at home, with a week off to recalibrate and create a plan for the remaining games. It’s an opportunity for the rookie to build positive momentum heading into the offseason. Brissett’s short-term deal suggests the Patriots want the North Carolina product to be in position to take over the team in Year 2.

Projection: November 17th vs. Rams (Week 11)

Four years, $180 million, including $100 million guaranteed: those are the terms of the lucrative contract Kirk Cousins ​​signed with Atlanta in March. The Falcons consider themselves a contender in the NFC. The division is relatively weak and the offense is well-positioned to take a big step forward from Zac Robinson’s first-season play.

Cousins ​​is coming off a torn Achilles tendon suffered in Week 8. It’s a difficult injury to return from, but the organization and player have stated they expect him to return to full fitness in time for training camp. Where does this leave Penix? Barring an injury, fans shouldn’t expect to see the rookie this season. Given the financial investment, the organization is reasonably committed to the veteran for at least two seasons.

Projection: Don’t start as a beginner

The Vikings’ initial move to replace Cousins ​​was to sign Sam Darnold. The former No. 3 overall pick has continued his journey from Carolina to San Francisco and now Minnesota since leaving the Big Apple. There is still some trust in Darnold among the McVay-Shanahan community, which could mean they won’t be taking their new car out of the garage for some time.

The Vikings seem pretty self-aware as they build toward the future, so expectations for this season alone shouldn’t be unreasonable. McCarthy enters a relatively relaxed situation when it comes to quarterback rooms. Darnold may keep the job for a while, but history suggests it’s only a matter of time before the franchise looks in another direction.

As McCarthy begins Week 7 coming off the bye, coach Kevin O’Connell gives two weeks to prepare his rookie quarterback for his first meeting with the division rival Lions. The Vikings could also choose to wait until Week 13, when four of their final six games will be played at home.

Projection: October 20 x Lions (week 7)

Bo Nix, Broncos (Round 1, No. 12 overall)

Last year was about Sean Payton proving he’s the smartest man in the league. There were the media barbs against former coach Nathaniel Hackett and the fallout with veteran quarterback Russell Wilson. The organization then used the 12th overall selection on the draft’s sixth quarterback, Nix, who was not viewed by many as a first-round selection. A social media campaign to justify the selection began in earnest and created potentially unfair expectations for the rookie quarterback.

I have no reason to wish ill will toward Payton or Nix. In fact, I hope Nix proves the doubters wrong and is extremely successful. However, it cannot be overstated how much Payton, who has been praised for his work with quarterbacks, has capitalized on Nix’s success. For that reason, the rookie is likely to be on the field in Week 1 instead of Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson.

Projection: September 8 at Seahawks (Week 1)