2024 NFC North win totals, best bets: Lions flying under the radar, Vegas loving Jordan Love and the Packers

NFL Season win totals are some of the most fun stocks to bet on – it’s a season-long bet with weekly intensity because of how important each game is to the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports betting, winning totals have been released for some time now, but we can’t really get crystallized, concrete numbers until NFL Schedule is released.

With the schedule defined and all angles of 2024 NFL season under scrutiny, we can finally start betting on season-long win totals. I’ll revisit them in August before the season starts, but we’ll try to find some value early in the offseason.

I am using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should research and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check out the rest of the divisions here as soon as they are released:

Before we begin, a few quick notes. First, we are picking all teams, but not betting on all teams. Second, any best bets will be indicated in bold, etc. Third, you should probably avoid betting on overs at this point, due to how quickly injuries can change a player’s fortunes. NFL teams.

Let’s go.

NFC North

Detroit Lions

• Above 10.5 (-115) / Below 10.5 (-105)

The Detroit Lions have never felt so confident about being a good football team, at least not in my lifetime. (You can make a case for the Wayne Fontes Lions of the early 1990s with Barry Sanders, but their win totals have always been in the eight-win range and their Super Bowl the odds have always been 35-1 at best.) Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have built a winner and a team that looks like a group you can trust. When the Lions traded Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff, they promptly rebuilt everything from the inside out and have steadily increased at several positions over the past few years. Their focus on the secondary this offseason really rounds out the roster. The Lions exceeded their expectation of winning two full games and also managed to go 5-3 in one-score games, which is concerning from an underlying performance standpoint. Their divisional matchups are NFC West and AFC South and they play first place games against the Cowboys, Bills and Buccaneers. The division also looks better. The 2023 draft class was a revelation last year — Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jack Campbell and Brian Branch is a ridiculous haul with Detroit’s top four picks — and should continue to progress. This core is loaded. Goff is liked and plays the best football of his career. Everyone got paid this offseason. And the rest of the division is getting all the hype. I would take it here, but I would prefer to bet on the Lions +150 to win the division if I were betting money on May, especially since the number is so high.

Pick: Lions Over 10.5 (-115)

Green Bay Packers

• Above 9.5 (-135) / Below 9.5 (+115)

The arc of Jordan Love’s 2023 season is fascinating. In *November* we heard GM Brian Gutekunst admit he wasn’t sure Love was Green Bay’s quarterback of the future. A few months later, people are putting Love on their top 10 QB lists without blinking. His last eight games of 2023 extrapolated to 17 games would be: 70.1% completion percentage, 4,569 yards, 38 touchdowns and two interceptions. He was electric late in the season and peaked when they beat the Cowboys in the playoffs before nearly knocking off the 49ers. If this continues into 2024, the Packers could hoist another Lombardi and Love’s absurd 12-1 preseason MVP price would be justified. There is nothing about one-score games or point differentials that raises a red flag for the Packers. After giving up the 10th-fewest points in the league, the Packers fired longtime DC Joe Barry and brought in Boston College coach Jeff Hafley (it’s partially a trend, but Hafley probably wanted out before BC fired him for not winning in a place no one wins except Tom O’Brien somehow). Christian Watson reportedly figured out how to avoid hamstring injuries, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are fantasy darlings, and the Packers traded Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd. Matt LaFleur quickly responded to questions about his post-Aaron Rodgers training. The Dolphins (home later in the year), Saints (same) and Eagles (neutral in Brazil Week 1) are incredibly fortunate in second-place division matchups. I have no interest in fading the Packers, but this is a very expensive price for a huge number. If this team starts 3-6 again, it would be difficult to achieve a 10-win season.

Slim: Over 9.5 (-135)

Chicago Bears

• Over 8.5 (-165) / Under 8.5 (+140)

Here comes the Bears Hype Train, in full swing once again. You could argue that it makes more sense this year than the last three (?) or five (?) or any other year. Caleb Williams is the No. 1 overall pick and is undoubtedly headed for the best landing spot a top pick has ever had. The Bears signed DJ Moore last offseason and added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze this offseason. Mix in D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, and Williams has a lot of weapons. The offensive line has also improved a lot, although possibly a little overkill in terms of effectiveness. Defensively, the Bears appear to be taking on the shape you want from a Matt Eberflus unit – adding some off-ball linebackers made sense to their scheme last offseason, and things really took off when Montez Sweat was acquired in a trade. half season. Chicago went 1-6 in one-score games and fell a full game short of the eight wins its point differential would project. There was a VERY strange situation mid-season with defensive coordinator Alan Williams (he is now gone). As was Luke Getsy, who was replaced by new OC Shane Waldron. The Bears are -125 on DraftKings to MAKE THE PLAYOFFS… *expect* them to make the postseason. This is wild! There are a lot of new pieces here that will look to gel quickly in a short off-season with a rookie quarterback. And that gives me major pause on the idea of ​​giving Chicago a big boost by winning nine-plus games in a really tough division. If I were betting below, I would expect it to go up a little more.

Lean: Bears under 8.5 (+140)

Minnesota Vikings

• Over 6.5 (-145) / Under 6.5 (+120)

The biggest red flag for the Vikings’ offseason isn’t losing Kirk Cousins…it’s Sam Darnold being a huge favorite to start Week 1 for this team. Maybe that’s not so bad if it allows JJ McCarthy to learn on the bench and step in if needed, but it does assume a lot of early season success for Darnold in Kevin O’Connell’s attack. I love the addition of Aaron Jones to the backfield, even if it’s just for the two games against Green Bay. And Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison (and TJ Hockenson when he’s healthy) is a ridiculous receiver combination. The defense started cooking last year under Brian Flores, but losing Danielle Hunter – even with the addition of Jonathan Greenard – is a concern. The Vikings went 6-7 in one-score games last year, but were coming off a historic anomaly of a one-score game season in 2022 and ended up starting four different quarterbacks. I have a lot of faith in this coaching staff and I can believe that the Darnold/JJ combination will be enough to keep this team competitive. But that’s an absurd price and you can’t afford it. I would probably be down if they told me the number was going up.

Lean: Vikings under 6.5 (+120)