Ranking the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates: Receivers galore, two quarterbacks in top 3

CJ Stroud sat in the driver’s seat and put it on cruise control on his way to the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year award, becoming the first quarterback to win the coveted hardware since Justin Herbert in 2020.

The previous year, in one of the most disputed races, with one of the most obscure finals in the NFL history, the Jets’ Garrett Wilson won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award over Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker in 2022, despite the Seattle ball carrier receiving more first-place votes than pass-catcher Gang Green.

Either way, both were the most dynamic first-year pros that season.

Let’s rank the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates for the 2024 season.

Before I begin, I felt compelled to proclaim that I’ve gotten smarter with these classifications. Only five of the last 22 Offensive Rookie of the Year winners were not chosen in the first round of the draft. It has now been six consecutive years that OROY has been chosen in the first round. Before that, Alvin Kamara and Dak Prescott – selected in the third and fourth rounds, respectively – took home the trophy in consecutive seasons (2016 and 2017). Additionally, neither an offensive lineman nor a tight end has ever won the award.

I have a theory that after the last four years have been justifiably centered around Stefon Diggs, the Bills’ new offensive plan — especially through the air — is a three-headed monster WR2 and Dalton Kincaid.

And, of course, they hope and hope that Coleman will be part of the WR2 trio – alongside Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel – that will prevent defenses from focusing on a central pass-catching figure.

While I didn’t like Coleman during the pre-draft process, I can’t ignore who’s going to throw him the ball. Allen is as aggressive as any passer in football with out-of-this-world talent. Coleman better be prepared for tailback rockets toward him, especially in the red zone. Because of his size, athletic ability and Allen’s brilliance, Coleman will be able to make an impact as a rookie in Buffalo. There will be plenty of targets for his teammates for him to get serious Rookie of the Year hype.

McConkey enters a completely revamped Chargers receiver room, and there is a path for him to earn over 100 targets as a rookie. Now, that will be a far cry from how he spent his days at Georgia as a highly efficient, low-volume asset in what was part of a run-heavy philosophy that clearly worked tremendously for the Bulldogs.

McConkey’s route-running ability is, vitally, two-fold. He can win with just pure athleticism and speed — 39.5-inch vertical and 4.39 40-yard dash — or a fun mix of finesses in the middle of his route to get open with consistent regularity.

And their quarterback, Justin Herbert, is obviously one of the most physically gifted passers in football. The Chargers have to replace the most targets (395) and percentage of targets (63%) in the NFL. The main reason McConkey isn’t much closer to one of them is his offensive coordinator. Greg Roman’s offenses historically finish near the bottom of the league in pass attempts [insert sad trombone here].

Maye was my QB2 in the 2024 draft, just behind Williams. Essentially, I was as excited about it as any other preliminary analyst. With my love for what Maye could become, I realized that he probably needs a little time to adjust to the situation. NFL. In essence, I imagine some growing pains early on.

And he will find himself in a quarterback competition with the experienced Jacoby Brissett. It would be a surprise if Maye didn’t get the gig right after camp or in the preseason, but crazier things have happened, and Brissett has a history with new Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.

Even when Maye takes over, which will likely happen sooner rather than later, New England will rely on two talented rookie pass catchers and second-year pro Pop Douglas in the receivers room to help Maye’s development.

We’ll see odd flashes from Maye — he demonstrated that ability repeatedly in his two full seasons as North Carolina’s starter — but they won’t be frequent enough for the rugged quarterback to get a serious amount of offensive rookie of the year votes.

Worthy enters what I’m labeling as the best-case scenario for a rookie receiver. He’ll catch passes from Patrick Mahomes in Andy Reid’s offense without an established target in the wide room. Yes, Travis Kelce’s presence still looms large, but the future first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end turns 35 in October.

And in the post-Tyreek Hill era in Kansas City, Reid and Mahomes have instituted an ingenious offensive plan that keeps defenses guessing by routinely spreading the football. This is bad and also good for Worthy. It’s bad because it will likely limit how often he watches football. But it’s a good thing because he’ll find himself in a variety of favorable matchups, and really, even if he only has three grabs for 115 yards and a touchdown, he’ll have left a considerable mark in this contest, likely due to his record. breaking speed.

Harrison Jr. is one of the most polished, NFL-ready receiver prospects we’ve all been fortunate enough to witness in quite some time. It seems that almost everyone agreed to this, and the collective agreement Never happens in NFL Draft industry.

The Cardinals rank sixth in “available” targets from a season ago with 217, and Harrison Jr. could eat around 125-150 of them. That’s where he is physically and as a route runner, thanks not only to his supreme natural gifts, but also to the incredible tutelage that Ohio State receivers receive in that program in Columbus.

I have reasonable faith in Kyler Murray. However, I don’t know how much Harrison can create after the catch in the NFL. He’s much bigger and faster, with impeccable route-running ability and ridiculous ball skills, than a flexible, rugged, contact-balance type with dynamic cutting abilities after catching the football. That latest game observation of him at Ohio State is why he’s lower than you probably expected in the OROY rankings.

Daniels has the kind of highlight-making talent. Run, throw deep, build speed on a pitch that needs a lot through a tight window. And as much as the Commanders will likely be better in 2024, they will still find themselves in ample situations where Daniels can show off to everyone. They will need it too.

Of course, Washington made a conscious effort to add new talent to the defense, but this unit was 31st in Aaron Schatz’s comprehensive defensive DVOA in 2023. Daniels will find himself in a lot of high-scoring affairs as a rookie in the nation’s capital.

And while the Commanders don’t boast a lavish receiving room, Terry McLaurin has been a star receiver who never managed to break into the superstar realm because of how his quarterback play held him back. His career 1.84 yards per carry is an incredible number given the group of passers who have thrown the ball to him since he entered the league in 2018. For perspective, any reason with a YPRR value above 2. 00 is magnificent.

Daniels may get sacks at a higher rate than most first-round rookie passers, but he will also counter with quick, effortless sprinters and dropped dimes downfield.

Nabers could be the main reason the Giants’ aerial attack transforms in 2024. Could be. That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen, because a receiver’s production is highly dependent on the quarterback throwing him the ball, and I don’t have a lot of faith in Daniel Jones. And I’m not alone there.

But that’s exactly why I ranked Nabers so highly here. His supreme YAC gifts can elevate the smaller quarterback, turning easy, high-percentage throws into big gains, and these plays are easily traceable to the receiver doing the heavy lifting. At LSU in 2024, Nabers recorded a 33.7% forced missed tackle rate, a spectacular rate – 30 forced missed tackles on 89 receptions last season.

However, his game is not entirely based on what he does with the ball in his hands. Nabers is a serious vertical threat. He caught 19 of Daniels’ 29 deep targets in 2023 for nine touchdowns and has sub-4.40 speed. He tracks the ball like an All-Star center fielder. If the Giants suddenly become dynamic through the air, Nabers will likely be the root cause, which will coincide with serious consideration of OROY.

Williams was the top prospect in the 2024 class. Positional value considered or not. What I found interesting during the pre-draft process was the onus of his pocket dominance, seemingly taken away from how stellar he is as a pitcher within the play’s structure, from the friendly confines of the pocket.

In his 2023 slump, Williams still posted the fourth-highest completion rate (73.5%) among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts with 19 touchdowns, three picks and a robust 9.4 yards per attempt average inside the pocket. .

He has a living arm, capable of launching rockets across the field. His arm talent – ​​the ability to make accurate throws from a variety of lower-body platforms – is outrageous, and he has always played with almost surgical precision. Then you add in the point guard talent and you understand why Williams went first overall.

And the talent in terms of skill around him has been well documented. A winner on all three levels, plus a rising young talent at tight end. Chicago’s offensive line should also be one of the best groups in the NFC. Williams has it all and the Bears have already built around him enough for the former Oklahoma and USC player to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024.