Caleb Harris
This offseason, the wide receiver market saw a significant change. Before March, there were only 13 wideouts with contracts totaling at least $60 million, only 11 whose deals had an average annual value of $20 million or more, and only 11 who were guaranteed at least $30 million in total. in their contracts.
In 2024 alone, each of Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, and now The Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle was added to all three of those lists, while AJ Brown surpassed each of those marks for the second consecutive contract.
In 2022, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp signed deals that make them the three highest-paid receivers in the league, with Kupp making $26.7 million per year, Adams at $28 million and Hill at $30 million. . Brown surpassed the $30 million per year average this offseason, while Smith ($25 million) and Waddle ($28.75 million) each joined them in earning at least $25 million per season.
And it’s almost certain that the market hasn’t stopped exploding yet. Tee Higgins is still looking for a long-term deal of his own. And behind him, there’s a group of four elite receivers who will probably or definitely exceed the marks set by Brown and St. Brown this offseason: the 2020 first-round receiver class of CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk, as well as happened with Higgins’ teammate, 2021 draft pick Ja’Marr Chase.
Aiyuk doesn’t have the same counting stats as others due to the 49ers’ slow, run-heavy, and spread offense, but his per-route and per-target efficiency are on par with the others, and he finished seventh in receiving yards in 2023 despite of having only 105 targets. (To give you an idea, nine players – including Lamb, St. Brown and Brown – had at least 105 handle.)
Meanwhile, Jefferson, Lamb and Chase were named Pro Bowlers three times. Chase was a Second Team All-Pro, Lamb made the Second Team once and the First Team once, and Jefferson made the Second Team twice and the First Team once, while also earning All-Star Offensive Player of the Year. Year. According to most observers, each of them is – at worst – the first five to seven receivers in the NFLand Jefferson is widely considered the best player in the league.
These guys are going to break the bank, and probably soon. With other players, and specifically slot guys like St. Brown or a player who is the No. 2 receiver on his own team like Waddle, getting into that range, the Jefferson-Chase-Lamb group can make a strong case for that they deserve to be paid at a level well above the current top of the market. It remains to be seen whether or not their current teams agree, but given how many other positional markets have been redefined this offseason, the importance of top-tier pass catchers, and the quality of players actually eligible for new deals, it seems very likely that they get there.
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