2024 NFL win totals, NFC West: Rams and Seahawks provide good value betting on upside

NFL Season win totals are some of the most fun stocks to bet on – it’s a season-long bet with weekly intensity because of how important each game is to the final season record. With the schedule defined and all angles of 2024 NFL season under scrutiny, we can finally start betting on season-long win totals. I’ll revisit them in August before the season starts, but we’ll try to find some value early in the offseason.

I’m using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you have to do your research and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check out the other divisions here:

Before we begin, a few quick notes. First, we are picking all teams, but not betting on all teams. Second, any best bets will be indicated in bold, etc. Third, you should probably avoid betting on overs at this point, due to how quickly injuries can change a player’s fortunes. NFL teams.

Let’s go.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

Over 11.5 (+105) / Under 11.5 (-125)

It’s no surprise to see the 49ers match the Chiefs for the highest win total in the season. NFL, although with a juice underneath. The 49ers have the better roster, but some question marks remain, including the status of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Ricky Pearsall is in the group and Jawuan Jennings has just been restocked. I think everyone is back in 2024 with the Niners going all in, but there is some weakness on the roster that you can only erase by having someone like Patrick Mahomes on your team. Two of the Niners’ three playoff games were one-score games (2-1 with a VERY tough loss), but in the regular season they went 2-3 and mostly dominated teams. San Francisco exceeded its expectation of victory and still won 12 games. The Niners take on the AFC East and NFC North along with the Chiefs, Cowboys and Buccaneers this year, so it’s not an easy schedule. But this team remains loaded – you won’t get a 10.5 on Kyle Shanahan’s team, but you also won’t catch me taking the under on this team at any point.

Pick: 49ers Over 11.5 (+105)

Los Angeles Rams

Above 8.5 (-140) / Below 8.5 (+120)

This is the best bet. Aaron Donald’s retirement hurts, for sure. But the Rams just selected a first-round pick for the first time since Jared Goff. Think about it! With the former, they got Jared Verse and then added Braden Fiske into the combo to try and recreate a lower percentage of the greatest defensive player in history. NFL history. If it works, the defense won’t fall as low as some might expect. (Kobie Turner is SLEEPING somehow.) The offense can really cook with the offensive line additions and Puka Nacua having another year under his belt. People are strangely writing Cooper Kupp off. Blake Corum gives them a lookalike backup to Kyren Williams. LA hosts the Raiders, Eagles, and Saints in divisional matchups, which is a pretty good choice all things considered. If they can get off to a good start before the bye, I think they have a good chance of winning the division. The underlying metrics in terms of point differential and one-score games are not great, but fairly average. I trust Sean McVay implicitly – everyone got hurt in his bad year and the world tried to send him to the announcing booth. The Rams are a 10-win team in 2024, barring a series of injuries.

Choice: Rams over 8.5 (-140)

Seattle Seahawks

Above 7.5 (-120) / Below 7.5 (+100)

This is a fun and interesting team for 2024. Pete Carroll never got enough credit for how good a coach he was, but there’s a good chance Mike Macdonald will be his perfect successor. He and John Schneider showed up to a press conference in gas station attendant uniforms because they were working as laborers. I can dress up as Schneider for Halloween, but as a gas station attendant. A small portion of the population will make it and I’m okay with that. But Pete has consistently coached this team above its expectations and Macdonald has to do that in his first year in a very tough division with a pretty tough schedule – a hot start is key or else the Seahawks will fight hard all year. It’s pretty easy to like the offense if Ryan Grubb’s Washington offense translates to the NFL (you can do the math from Harbaugh where Macdonald has seen/heard good things about it) and Macdonald maximizes his defensive personnel. It’s amazing how the Seahawks reset their entire franchise based on the Russell Wilson trade. Geno Smith isn’t… but could he be? … at least for a year or two? The receiving corps is loaded, the running backs are stout, the offensive line is improved. If the defense adopts Macdonald’s scheme in year one, there is a legitimate ceiling here. I wouldn’t want to be personally down.

Lean: Seahawks Over 7.5 (-120)

Arizona Cardinals

Above 6.5 (-150) / Below 6.5 (+125)

I wanted to do a general cleaning here, but the price is too expensive to take on. Jonathan Gannon won four games in his first season, while missing Kyler Murray for most of the year and having multiple issues. This team was very lively from the start and looked competent offensively for much of the year. The Cardinals went 2-5 in one-score games and exceeded their win expectation by a game and a half last year. They have now put in a lot of work in the offseason, most notably adding Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth pick in the draft. Trey Benson in the third round was a sneaky scoop. The future they got from the Texans turned out to be much smaller than they expected, but Darius Robinson is a decent consolation prize. The defense ranked near the bottom in terms of points allowed last year and has nowhere to go but up this season. I think the training here is good. The schedule is BRUTAL to start – Arizona opens at the Bills, hosts the Rams, Lions and Commanders at home and then travels to San Francisco and Green Bay to start. If the cards split this, they will discount it, I think. But they’ll likely need to beat two Chargers, Bears and Jets at home before the bye as well. The schedule gets a little lighter toward the end (hey, Panthers and Patriots!) but features four divisional games in its final seven games. If it were cheaper, I would go here.

Lean: Cardinals under 6.5 (+125)