NFC South 2024 burning questions: Can Panthers’ Bryce Young bounce back? How will Falcons’ Kirk Cousins look?

There is no division around the NFL has been more winnable than the NFC South the past two seasons, despite the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being the division’s back-to-back champions.

In 2022, the Buccaneers crossed the finish line with an 8-9 record, while the other three NFC South teams – the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – stumbled to 7-10 records. Last season, Tampa Bay and New Orleans finished with identical 9-8 records, with the Falcons right behind at 7-10. The Buccaneers emerged at the top of the standings once again thanks to a higher winning percentage in common games that served as tiebreakers between the two.

Once again, it’s possible that any of the four teams in the division, including the Panthers, after an active offseason, could compete for first place in the NFC South. Here’s the most pressing question for each team in the division before training camps begin. training in July.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Question: Can Baker Mayfield maintain the play shown in his 2023 career year with another new OC?

The 2023 season felt like quarterback Baker Mayfield’s last chance to prove he could be a starting quarterback in the NFL. The 2018 first overall pick NFL Draft signed a one-year, $4 million contract with the Buccaneers last offseason after suiting up for his fourth team since 2021: the Cleveland Browns (2021), the Carolina Panthers (2022), the Los Angeles Rams ( 2022) and the Buccaneers (2023). Mayfield became the only quarterback in NFL history to start for four different teams in the span of two calendar years.

He was even in a quarterback training camp battle with Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay’s 2021 second-round pick NFL Draft out of Florida, which stood out as the longest-running training camp QB competition of the preseason.

However, Mayfield certainly proved that head coach Todd Bowles made the right choice in 2023 in picking him to be his guy, as he has put up career numbers in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044) and passing touchdowns (28). He ranks as one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the entire league in passing yards (ninth) and passing touchdowns (seventh), even throwing one more regular-season touchdown pass than Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes (27 regular season touchdowns in 2023).

Baker Mayfield Season 2023

*Ranked in the top 10 in the NFL

The question here is simple: Can Mayfield turn what he did in 2023 into a routine? Can Mayfield maintain that level after re-signing a three-year, $100 million contract with $50 million guaranteed this offseason and after losing offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who is now Carolina’s head coach Panthers?

The good news is that the Buccaneers were able to retain five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans, who co-led the NFL with 13 touchdowns in his first year with Mayfield, by re-signing him to a two-year contract worth U.S. $41 million. deal with $29 million fully guaranteed. Another bit of good news is that Mayfield’s new offensive coordinator is someone he’s worked with before, Liam Coen.

Coen was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams under head coach Sean McVay in 2022, when the Rams claimed Mayfield off waivers after a lackluster stint with the Panthers. Mayfield helped rally the Rams to a 17-16 “Thursday Night Football” victory against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14 of the 2022 season, a game Los Angeles trailed 13, 16-3, with 12:20 left to play. Mayfield threw the game-winning 23-yard touchdown to wide receiver Van Jefferson with nine seconds left that day.

Tampa Bay certainly hopes Coen gets the fourth-quarter version of Mayfield from that night and the 2023 season iteration of their $100 million quarterback on a consistent basis going forward.

Carolina Panteras

Question: Can Bryce Young bounce back after a horrible rookie season?

The rookie campaign of quarterback Bryce Young, the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, was the manifestation of the Carolina Panthers’ worst-case scenario for the small passer’s first year in the NFL.

Young’s 5.5 passing yards per attempt and 73.7 passer rating ranked among the worst in the NFL last season, making him just the second overall rookie draft pick to go last in both since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, along with Troy Aikman in 1989. His 5.5 yards per pass attempt is the fourth-lowest in a single season in NFL history among quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts. Brutal stuff.

Lowest passing yards/attempts in a season ever (min. 500 attempts)

However, not all of Young’s fights in 2023 will depend solely on him. Carolina’s offense allowed the fourth-highest quarterback pressure rate in the NFL last season (42.1%), which resulted in the Panthers sacking a Panthers single-season record 62 times. His pass catchers didn’t help him much either, as Carolina totaled the fifth-fewest expected points added per target in the NFL, a metric partially indicating that his receivers weren’t as open even when Young was able to deliver the football. . path.

The Panthers are on a mission to upgrade the offensive ecosystem around Young this offseason. They invested a lot of money in their offensive line this offseason, signing longtime Seattle Seahawks starting offensive guard Damien Lewis to a four-year contract worth $53 million, as well as signing former Miami point guard Dolphins Robert Hunt, five-year, $100 million contract with $63 million guaranteed.

General manager Dan Morgan also traded cornerback Donte Jackson and a sixth-round pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for wide receiver Diontae Johnson and a seventh-round pick to add another steady veteran presence that Young can rely on. He then spent three of the Panthers’ first four picks in the 2024 NFL Draft on offensive help: South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette (32nd overall), Texas running back Jonathon Brooks (46th overall) and Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (101st overall).

Between all the resources invested in Young’s supporting cast and the hiring of Dave Canales as his head coach, the former Buccaneers offensive coordinator who helped fix Baker Mayfield, the second-year quarterback should have what it takes to make a big step forward in 2024.

Atlanta Falcons

Question: What will Kirk Cousins ​​look like at age 36 after a torn Achilles tendon?

There seems to be a somewhat natural assumption that Kirk Cousins, who played as a top-five quarterback for the first eight weeks of 2023 before tearing his Achilles tendon, will simply recover and continue playing a steady, Pro-caliber level of football. Bowl, in 36 years.

Is this really realistic? The Falcons are certainly banking on that hope after signing Cousins ​​to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million in guaranteed money this offseason.

Kirk Cousins, Weeks 1-8 in 2023

*Tore Achilles in Week 8

According to CBS Sports Research, there are only four notable examples of quarterbacks who tore their Achilles tendon later in their careers and then returned to play. Only one of them, Pro Football Hall of Famer Dan Mario at age 32, returned to throw at least 10 more touchdowns than interceptions after his Achilles tear. What Cousins ​​and New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers are trying to do in 2024 — play high-caliber football after his Achilles rupture while being on the wrong side of 30 — is simply unprecedented.

Notable QBs after Achilles rupture

• 1993 Dan Marino at age 32…plus 86 games (50-36, 122 TD, 84 INT, 2 Pro Bowls)
• 1999 Vinny Testaverde at age 36…plus 68 games (70 TD, 76 INT)
• 2000 Jim Miller at age 29… 21 more games (26 TD, 19 INT)
• 2002 Trent Dilfer at age 30… 19 more games (20 TD, 28 INT)

It helps that Cousins’ pass protection isn’t changing much in quality after leaving the Minnesota Vikings to join the Falcons. Minnesota’s Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade of 74.4 ranked second-best in the NFL last season, while Atlanta’s was third (74.2). The Falcons are also built to run the football with three former first-round offensive linemen: left tackle Jake Matthews, right tackle Kaleb McGary and two-time Pro Bowler Chris Lindstrom at right guard.

Lean on second-year running back Bijan Robinson, whose 1,463 yards from scrimmage last season were the most among rookies in Falcons history and second-most among NFL rookies in 2023 behind Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, should help ease the burden on Cousins. Robinson said it is preparing to be used like San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffreythe NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2023, in 2024.

That would be ideal for Cousins’ sake. However, there is a chance that 2024 eighth overall pick Michael Penix Jr. could take the field sooner than expected if the 36-year-old’s health falters again.

Saints of New Orleans

Question: Can the Saints generate more pass rush to help their top-10 defense?

The free acquisition of quarterback Derek Carr didn’t pay immediate dividends for the New Orleans Saints, but Carr heated up late in the season, giving some hope that he can stabilize their offense in 2024.

Derek Carr Season 2023

However, if the Saints want to challenge some of the league’s best who have top-notch quarterbacks, they need to have a more threatening pass rush. Coach Dennis Allen’s defense played in the top 10 in key buy-and-large situations, ranking fourth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate allowed (34.5%) and takeaways (29), as well as points allowed overall (19.2 PPG allowed, eighth-lowest in the NFL).

But pass rush has been an issue in 2023 despite those solid numbers. His 34 sacks were tied for fourth-fewest in the NFL, and his 72 quarterback hits were tied for third-fewest in the league. New Orleans’ quarterback pressure rate of 33.3% ranked 11th last season, not much better. It’s worth noting that eight-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Cameron Jordan, a member of the 2010s All-Decade Team, recorded just two sacks in 2023 — the second-fewest of his career after totaling one in his rookie year in 2011. At 35 years in 2024, it’s clear that the Saints can no longer count on him to carry their pass rush.

The two most notable additions to New Orleans’ defensive front were 2020 second overall pick Chase Young, whom they signed to a one-year contract worth $13 million, and defensive tackle North Iowa forward Khristian Boyd, a sixth-round draft pick (199th overall) who excelled in the East-West Shrine Bowl in February. Will these two players — plus the presence of 2024 second-round cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, an All-American from Alabama, on the back end — be enough to help add enough power to the Saints’ pass rush? We’ll just have to wait and see.