Fantasy Football Today: Round 2-3 wide receivers to target or avoid in your drafts

One of my favorite aspects of working with fantasy football Today is how often and how far in advance we have mock drafts and real drafts going on before the start of a Fantasy Football (and NFL season). We had simulations before and after 2024 NFL Draft and now we’re starting to accumulate some data on ADP (average draft position) trends, the sweet spots in each round, and strategies that will determine the roster makeup for next season.

One concept that was discussed at length on the Fantasy Football Today podcast is the surprising uncertainty at the WR position as we get to rounds 2-3. On Tuesday’s FFT show, the guys dove into which wide receivers they are targeting in this range and Adam ranked the second and third round receivers in order of PPR formats. We’ll dive into some of these key takeaways about each wide receiver selected in this range from Adam Aizer’s detailed program prep below, as well as Adam’s PPR rankings of the second-tier receivers.

Olave comes off the board sometime in Round 2, but has fallen to round 2/3 in some of our early mock drafts. The talented Saints receiver played through injuries in 2023, but would be on pace to rack up 92 receptions and 1,193 yards on 147 targets over a 17-game pace. If you remove Week 4, where Derek Carr played through a shoulder injury that limited him to 127 yards on 37 attempts (and a lot of checkdowns to Alvin Kamara), Olave was on a 97-1,268-6 pace on 150 targets. The volume will likely only improve in 2024 with an additional year of relationship with Carr and the team’s decision to move on from Michael Thomas. Olave could ultimately be a better bet in Best Ball leagues after finishing with 60 yards or fewer in eight games in 2023, unless, of course, you see the Saints passing game taking an unlikely step forward in 2024. However, Olave could benefit from a new system with Klint Kubiak coming in to lead the attack. However, there is a lot of projection involved in Olave’s prospects, as he has never finished among the top 20 Fantasy receivers in points per game at any point in his career despite being selected above that range.

If we’re projecting when it comes to Olave and his ADP, we’re doing the same with London, who has accumulated just 69 receptions, 905 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 109 targets in 2023. Of course, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were his quarterbacks and now he hires Kirk Cousins. Working in London’s favor is the fact that he has led the Falcons in both the red and green zones for two consecutive seasons – he has just six touchdowns to show for it, but Falcons quarterbacks have thrown just 34 touchdown passes over the past two seasons. . London didn’t finish in the top 40 in fantasy points per game among wide receivers per game, but is being selected in the Rounds 2-3 range based on how he might project with Cousins. It’s important to remember that Cousins ​​is 36 years old, has returned from an Achilles injury and has learned a new offensive system.

Waddle hasn’t lived up to his ADP in 2023, largely due to injuries. He only played in 14 games and wasn’t completely healthy in all of them. If you extrapolate his production to a 17-game sample, Waddle was on pace for 87 receptions, 1,231 yards and five touchdowns compared to his 2022 season, where he racked up 75 receptions, 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns on 117 targets. If Waddle can stay healthy in 2023, there is reason to believe he could return to 2022 form. In Weeks 7 and 16 of the 2023 season, Waddle played just 45% and 43% of the Dolphins’ snaps, respectively. If we remove those weeks, he had a 17-game pace of 92/1,267/7. In 2022, Waddle played over 70% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps in 13 of 17 games, but that number dropped to just six of 14 games in 2023 as he battled injuries. Waddle was the WR7 overall in 2022 and after signing an extension with the Dolphins, he is one of the best value picks in the Rounds 2-3 range at wide receiver now that he is fully healthy.

Pittman found success with Gardner Minshew in 2023, earning a large target share. He racked up 109 receptions, 1,152 yards and four touchdowns on 156 targets (in just 16 games). Minshew is gone and Anthony Richardson is fully healthy for OTAs. In Weeks 1 and 4 with Richardson (the rookie quarterback’s only two fully healthy games), Pittman racked up eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown in one of them and just one reception for 15 yards (on five targets) in the other. Production can be difficult to predict with such a small sample size working with Richardson. However, there are very few receivers you can take in the Rounds 2-3 range with more upside than Pittman, given his potential target share and the potential for this passing game to take a leap forward in Richardson’s second season.

Adams is 31 years old now, but he still caught 103 receptions, 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns on 175 targets in 17 games. Goals are accomplished at the NFL level and Adams has shown no signs of slowing down. The Raiders haven’t hit Adams with more than 175 targets in two consecutive seasons. Of course, the flip side of this is that in 2023 the Raiders had the third-highest off-target rate among all quarterbacks. Projecting a big jump for the Raiders’ offense seems risky, even after the team added Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Additionally, there are some alarming rate trends that Adams should consider. His 11.7 yards per reception was his lowest since 2015, he has now spent two consecutive seasons with a reception rate below 60% and has just 3.3 yards after the catch per reception in 2023 after accumulating at least 4 .6 yards after catch per catch. reception in seven of his last 10 seasons. Adams’ floor should still be high due to the high volume he will likely receive, but there is injury risk due to his age, metrics to worry about, and a ceiling that isn’t what he used to be.

Check out the Fantasy Football Today podcast below for more in-depth analysis of each wide receiver, plus full analyzes of Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, and Nico Collins.

Below you will find Adam Aizer’s PPR rankings of Rounds 2-3 receivers:

Aizer PPR Ratings

1. Chris Olave
2. Drake London
3. Davante Adams
4. Jaylen Waddle
5. Deebo Samuel
6. Nico Collins
7. Mike Evans
8. Michael Pittman
9. Brandon Aiyuk