AFC West burning questions for 2024 NFL season: Chiefs three-peat? Can Jim Harbaugh lead Chargers to playoffs?

On paper, the AFC West is as predictable as a weekday morning. You get up, check your smartphone, shower, and possibly have a quick meal before starting a day of work. For the AFC West, standard procedure is for the Chiefs to finish first and everyone else to fight for second.

Really, I wouldn’t expect much of a difference in 2024, but that doesn’t mean the AFC West won’t be an interesting division to follow. In fact, I would say it could be one of the NFL intriguing divisions.

Let’s start with the Chiefs, who will embark on a historic quest to become the only team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The Jim Harbaugh era begins in Los Angeles, as Antonio Pierce begins his first full season as head coach of the Raiders. In Denver, pressure is mounting on Sean Payton, who is trying to determine who his next starting quarterback will be after opting out of the Russell Wilson experiment.

So while the Chiefs winning their ninth straight division title seems like a sure thing, there are still a lot of unknowns that should make for a fun and interesting year in the AFC West. With that in mind, let’s take a look at each team’s burning question.

Kansas City Chiefs: Mahomes and Co. will win third straight Super Bowl?

The short answer is that the Chiefs will likely join the ’68 Packers, ’74 Dolphins, ’76 and ’80 Steelers, ’90 49ers, ’94 Cowboys, ’99 Broncos and ’05 Patriots as two-time winners who failed to complete the three-peat. The real question is: What will stop the Chiefs from making history?

Each of the teams mentioned above was specifically hurt by one thing. Age caught up with the 1968 Packers and 1980 Steelers. Injuries closed the door on the ’90 49ers and ’76 Steelers, who managed to come within a game of Super Bowl. John Elway’s off-season retirement ended any chance the Broncos had of a three-peat. A terrible flurry of comebacks to open the 1994 NFC Championship Game doomed the 1994 Cowboys. The ’74 Dolphins and ’05 Patriots simply lost to better teams in the playoffs.

What will be the Chiefs’ undoing? It won’t be age, as Kansas City is still a relatively young team without Travis Kelce. It will likely be injuries (which contributed largely to the Chiefs’ loss Super Bowl LV), a bad day at the office (see the second half of the 2021 AFC Championship) or not being able to overcome some gaps in their squad.

Last year, they proved they can make it through the AFC without a top seed. But L’Jarius Sneed, who played a significant role in the Chiefs’ playoff success, was sent to Tennessee this offseason, thus creating a hole in Kansas City’s secondary that was “filled” by Jaylen Watson, a seventh-round pick from 2022 who has made eight appearances during his first two seasons.

Along with the secondary, the Chiefs’ receiving corps continues to be a question mark.

Rookie Marquise Brown’s production so far in his career has been neutralized by injuries. Rashee Rice will likely face a suspension for his involvement in an automobile accident earlier this offseason. Rookie Xavier Worthy is promising, but his lack of size is concerning. Fortunately, the Chiefs have a quarterback who seems to almost always get the most out of his skill players.

Speaking of quarterbacks, this position is what makes the ultimate difference in today’s world. NFL. If you have an elite quarterback, you have a realistic chance of winning it all. If not, have fun trying to make the playoffs. Luckily for the Chiefs, they have the best quarterback in the business in Patrick Mahomes. The bad news for the Chiefs is that they share a conference with seven of the NFL other important defenders like Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa and CJ Stroud.

Without Herbert, the other six quarterbacks mentioned above are on teams strong enough to challenge the Chiefs in 2024. But if history is any indication of what will happen this year, the Bills and Ravens were not able to defeat the Chiefs. ‘code in previous playoff matchups. That leaves Houston and Cincinnati as the leading candidates to unseat Kansas City.

Can either team upset the Chiefs? Houston has the team to do it, led by Stroud, wideouts Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and a defense that has only improved this offseason. But this is a big demand for a team that is still on the rise. The Bengals, on the other hand, have already proven they can beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, having done so in 2021. Cincinnati represents the best chance for an AFC team to knock the Chiefs off their pedestal.

Miami could also be a worthy opponent, but Mike McDaniel’s team needs to avoid the late-season slumps that have plagued them the past two years. The Dolphins also need to figure out how to play better in the cold, as they are without victory in the last 11 games where the temperature was below 40 degrees at the start of the game.

As I mentioned earlier, the Chiefs proved last year that they can overcome their flaws and formidable competition en route to winning the Lombardi Trophy. You can never count out Mahomes, and I won’t dare do so now. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Mahomes and Co. made history and won for the third time in a row Super Bowl. I’m just not counting on it.

Los Angeles Chargers: Can Harbaugh lead LA to playoffs in first year?

I definitely see a scenario where the Chargers are able to capture one of the AFC’s three wild card spots. If that happens, Harbaugh would likely be on track to win Coach of the Year honors, a year after leading Michigan to its first national title in 26 years.

Los Angeles went through a lot of changes this offseason, most notably the departures of wideouts Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler. The Chargers, however, did a good job replacing these players.

Overall, they drafted Ladd McConkey, who will complement Josh Palmer and 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston, as a starter. To replace Ekeler, Harbaugh signed two of his older brother’s former Baltimore players, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Dobbins, a 2020 second-round pick, had a brilliant start to his career before injuries wiped out most of the last three seasons.

Two of the Chargers’ most underrated signings were in trouble with the signings of Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. Dissly was a reliable target throughout his career in Seattle. Hurst, a former first-round pick, is two years away from having a big year catching passes from Joe Burrow in Cincinnati.

On defense, Los Angeles still has one of the best outside linebacker duos in the world. NFL on Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The Chargers, despite having Pro Bowl safety Derwin James, rank 30th in the league in passing yards allowed in 2023. Los Angeles is certainly hoping former Titans second-round pick Kristian Fulton realizes his potential while helps fix the Chargers’ sagging pass defense.

In fact, the biggest reason for optimism here is Herbert, who has enjoyed considerable success in NFL until now, despite all the turnover that happened around him. To improve Herbert’s chances of success, the team spent this year’s first-round pick on Joe Alt, this year’s top offensive tackle prospect.

Several things will have to go the Chargers’ way if they want to make the playoffs. Their wideouts will have to come of age, Dobbins will need to stay healthy, and the secondary will have to make a notable leap. But there are enough positive things happening in Los Angeles to convince me that the next chapter in Harbaugh’s truly unique coaching journey will include a playoff berth for his new team in 2024.

Denver Broncos: Who will be QB1?

What makes this question difficult to answer is the fact that Sean Payton has never been in this situation before. The Broncos coach had Drew Brees during his tenure with the Saints and began his tenure with the Broncos with Russell Wilson. Will Payton give rookie Bo Nix a changeup right off the bat or will he go with one of his veterans?

Each quarterback has his own unique advantage. In addition to being the most athletically gifted player of the three, Zach Wilson also has 33 regular season appearances under his belt. Jarrett Stidham has the advantage of playing in Denver’s system last year. For Nix, it’s the advantage of being a first-round pick and the opportunity that presents.

Nix also made his own fortune. The Broncos were impressed with Nix’s pre-snap work, which included processing play calls, running checks and getting the snap in on time.

“He’s further along than most rookies,” Payton said of Nix, via Atlético. “We’re talking about a player who played 61 games. He’s extremely intelligent. He learned very quickly.”

At this stage, Payton is giving each of his defenders a hard time in the first-team offense. That will have to change, however, when the team begins training camp next month.

In my opinion, the job if Nix loses. Payton didn’t spend a first-round pick on Nix to see him move up from the bench. And after running Wilson out of town (and paying him $39 million no to play for them this year), Payton needs one of the three quarterbacks to be successful. Given the situation, it makes sense for Payton to go with her guy.

Whoever wins the job won’t have a bad situation. The Broncos have a solid receiving corps (which includes rookie Troy Franklin, who was Nix’s teammate at Oregon), offensive line and running game. Defensively, Denver has two of the NFL the main defenders (cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons) and a pass rush that should be reinforced by the arrival of rookie Jonah Elliss, who recorded 12 sacks during his last season in Utah.

Las Vegas Raiders: Will Davante Adams be traded?

Davante Adams’ future isn’t a hot topic right now, but rest assured it will be if the Raiders’ season goes off the rails.

It won’t be fun if the Raiders go 8-9 or 9-8, but their lineup suggests that could be what’s in store for Las Vegas in 2024. While the roster includes several studs like Adams and Maxx Crosby, the Raiders are big partly made up of solid, but unspectacular veterans. It should be noted that the Raiders’ starting lineup will likely include rookies Jackson Powers-Johnson and Brock Bowers. Their growth this season will be something to keep an eye on.

Considering all of this, the Raiders’ success this season will largely depend on how well the team’s starting quarterback plays, which will either be Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell.

A true gunslinger, Minshew’s fearlessness can lead to some dazzling plays, but it can lead to total disaster for his team. O’Connell has similar characteristics; he threw 12 touchdowns, but also threw seven picks while going 5-5 as a starter for the Raiders last year (his rookie season).

My guess is that Adams won’t be a Raider when this year’s trade deadline ends. After all, Adams is still a high-level player who can make a difference for a team headed to the playoffs. In fact, if Adams is indeed traded, two possible destinations could be the Packers (his former team) or the Jets (who employ Aaron Rodgers, his former quarterback in Green Bay). Rest assured the Raiders will be handsomely rewarded if they trade Adams.

A six-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro, Adams is at the end of his career. Although he has done almost everything a football player can do, Adams has yet to win or even play in a Super Bowl. He should have one last opportunity to do that before calling it a career, even if it means parting ways with the franchise he grew up rooting for.