Fantasy Football: Round 2-3 running backs to target and avoid in your drafts from James Cook to Derrick Henry

One of my favorite aspects of working with fantasy football Today is how often and early we have both mock drafts and real drafts going on before the start of a fantasy football (It is NFL season). We had simulations before and after 2024 NFL Draft and now we’re starting to accumulate some data on ADP (average draft position) trends, the sweet spots in each round, and strategies that will determine the roster makeup for next season.

One concept that has been discussed extensively on the Fantasy Football Today podcast is the surprising uncertainty in the second and third rounds of early Fantasy drafts. Previously, we discussed the Rounds 2-3 wide receivers and who to potentially target and avoid. At FFT, the guys dove into the running backs they’re targeting in this range and Adam ranked the second- and third-round receivers in order for PPR formats. We’ll dive into some of the key takeaways from each running back selected in this range.

Cook was rated as an RB10 by our current consensus (Jamey, Dave, and Heath) after a strong finish to the 2023 season as Joe Brady took over drafting duties for the Bills. Cook has rushed for 1,122 yards on 237 carries with just two rushing touchdowns in 2023. If we assume Cook will see some positive regression from a rushing touchdowns standpoint, he could present excellent value in 2024 drafts. only position at 3rd, 4th and 1st in 2023 and the Bills just drafted Ray Davis to potentially fill the short yardage role. Additionally, the Bills don’t typically run the football in the red zone, and when they do, quarterback Josh Allen is sometimes the priority.

Cook, however, made up for it by converting four of his 44 receptions into touchdowns. He was on a 53-catch pace with Brady calling the plays.

It was truly a tale of two seasons for Cook, who racked up 17, 16, 10, 25, 20, 16 and 13 starts in his last seven games, respectively. If you rate his playing with Brady as his playcaller over a 17-game season, Cook would have finished with 1,231 rushing yards, 542 receptions and nine total touchdowns. We previously discussed how the Bills haven’t featured their running backs in the red zone, but Cook has racked up 21 carries inside the 5-yard line in 2023 – the eighth-most in the season. NFL. That was another major change under Brady as offensive coordinator.

Faith in Cook comes down to the belief that his receiving production won’t drop — or that rushing touchdowns will increase to make up for it. Cook finished averaging the 19th-most fantasy points per game in 2023 among running backs and is being selected in the top 10 at the position.

Pachecho sits in the RB15 range of our consensus rankings, with Jamey, Dave, and Heath rating him RB16, RB15, and RB15. Injuries played a major role in Pacheco’s 2023 season, but at a 17-game pace, he was on track for 1,135 rushing yards with eighth rushing touchdowns, in addition to 296 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. He could easily regain his consensus rating if he can put together a full season at this rate. Pacheco started working hard down the stretch with 18 or more runs in six of his last nine games, including four postseason games. He also saw an increase in targets when Jerick McKinnon was out of the lineup, however, his role in the passing game is questionable – he averaged 2.9 targets per game with McKinnon and five targets per game in four games of the season. regular without it. Since then, the Chiefs have added wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown in the first round. After a historically bad passing season for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing game, it’s reasonable to assume some positive regression in that regard. If more of those red zone opportunities turn into touchdown passes, Pacheco could struggle to reach his ceiling in 2024, but he seems locked in as a high-floor RB2.

White was one of Fantasy Football’s biggest revelations in 2023, largely due to his role – high volume – specifically in the passing game. White enters 2024 ranked as FFT’s consensus RB6 with very few question marks about his next role and little non-draft competition from 2024 Day 3 rookie Bucky Irving and former UDFA sophomore Sean Tucker . White averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and was near the bottom of the NFL in all-area rushing efficiency metrics, but he made up for it with 64 receptions, 549 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns.

White has scored 13 or more PPR FPs in 12 of his last 14 games including the postseason and 15.9 or more PPR FPs in 10 of those 14 games. He finished with the ninth-most targets among running backs in 2023 and had one of the highest catch rates of all running backs. He doesn’t expect big plays, however, if he’s investing a second-round pick in White. He has one long run of 38 yards in 2023 and just three runs of 16 yards or more. Volume should keep White locked into an RB2 role, but his touchdown total will tell the story of whether or not he can return value on a second-round capital investment.

Henry will be one of the most polarizing defenders in the draft in 2024 due to his age. Many analysts in the draft community opt to avoid running backs on the wrong side of 30 with an investment in the first three rounds and Henry is coming off a career-worst 4.2 yards per carry in 2023. Henry has also accumulated 2,030 carries in your career. Of course, his situation has completely changed in 2024, after signing with the Ravens and leaving behind one of the worst offensive lines in football in 2023.

Fun stat: Prior to 2023, Henry had been RB4 or better per game across all formats for four consecutive seasons. In four of the five seasons since Lamar Jackson took over as the Ravens’ starting quarterback, a Baltimore running back has finished in the top 11 in total rushing yards. In 2023, Ravens running backs have scored a combined 13 rushing touchdowns. Derrick Henry has scored 12, 16, 17, 10, 13 and 12 rushing touchdowns in each of his last six seasons, respectively. He has played 15 or more games in every season except 2021, when he played in 8 games and missed half the season with a foot injury. Henry is one of my favorite second-round targets due to his touchdown upside and potential for a positive game script on a rival Ravens roster.