State of the QB position in 2024: Five trends to know, including historic youth movement, richer deals

There is no more important position in sports than defender. If the position wasn’t fun enough to follow, we are currently in an era that features the most volatile, highest-paid, injury-prone, youngest and most talented group of QBs in the world. NFL history.

Here are five trends you need to know about:

1. Age of impatience

It’s no secret that we live in a world where we want things now, now, now! We can order something online and have it delivered the same day. In the NFL, teams want their top QBs to have immediate results as well.

It’s becoming the age of impatience, as the average number of career starts for QBs drafted in the first round in the 2010s is currently 52. ​​Even if you project signal-callers like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson to double their game totals for their respective teams, that number only jumps to the mid-60s, a far cry from the 2000s (81) and most other decades.

Average career starts for draft team (first-round QBs per draft decade)

• 2010s – 52
• 2000s – 81
• 1990s – 50s
• 1980s – 73
• 1970s – 76

Approximately 40% of QBs drafted in the first round in the 2010s signed a second contract with their draft team. Additionally, the previous two mega QB classes (2018 and 2021) saw only three of the 10 first-round QBs land second deals with their draft teams.

Why are these numbers so low? There are many theories. Head coaches and front offices are also under immense pressure, so starting over at QB could buy them more time. QBs are so valued in today’s game that they are overdrafted and unprepared. QBs are thrown into the fire quickly and have to learn on the job rather than spending most of their rookie seasons (first-round rookie QBs have averaged 10 starts per year for the past decade).

In some cases, as the Browns can attest, wisdom lies in prudence. Their decision to move on from Baker Mayfield and invest a guaranteed $230 million (and three first-round picks) in Deshaun Watson looks worse by the day.

2. Show me the money!

Speaking of Watson, QBs are being paid more and more generously, even getting a bigger slice of the pie. Joe Burrow’s new contract signed last year represented 25% of the Bengals’ cap hit in terms of his average annual salary, per Spotrac. That’s the highest value in the entire league and well above Aaron Rodgers’ market-defining contract in 2018, which represented 19% of the Packers’ cap hit. There are now 12 QBs who account for a bigger slice of the pie in 2024.

3. Have the injuries increased?

Every year, it seems like QB injuries skyrocket despite the NFL’s efforts to protect signal-callers. Last year we saw the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins ​​and Justin Herbert suffer season-ending injuries. So, have injuries really increased or are we just prisoners of the moment? Yes, the numbers confirm that QB injuries have increased:

• There have been 66 different starting QBs in 2023, the second-most in a season behind 68 in 2022. That number has steadily increased since 2012, when there were 48.
• Just nine QBs started every game last season, the lowest total since 1999. The average was 14 from 2000-22.
• This was the second year in a row that season-opening starting QBs missed at least 24% of possible starts. Before that, that number hadn’t been 24% or higher since 2008.

The age of impatience documented above may contribute to this. But it also makes sense that we’re seeing more QB injuries based on teams dropping back more to pass, QBs having more and more opportunities to get hurt with the expansion to a 17-game schedule. It also doesn’t help that we’re seeing worse offensive line play due to less training time in the offseason, among other reasons. Last season saw the highest dismissal and pressure rates on record.

Percentage of games lost to Week 1 starting QBs

• 2023 – 24%
• 2022 – 25%
• 2021 – 18%
• 2020 – 19%
• 2019 – 21%
• 2018 – 22%
• 2017 – 20%
• 2016 – 18%
• 2015 – 17%

4. Youth movement

The QB changing of the guard is all but complete with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Eli Manning out of the league, with Aaron Rodgers the biggest holdover of the old guard.

We could be looking at the youngest crop of QBs in NFL history after six of them were taken in the top 12 picks for the first time. Last year already featured the second youngest starting QB group ever (average age: 27) since 1956 (26).

5. Playing style

The youth movement came with its growing pains. The league averaged 10.9 yards per completion last year, the fourth consecutive year it was the worst season in NFL history. The passing average continues to get shorter and shorter, as it was 7.7 air yards per attempt in 2023, a full yard drop from 2011.

On the bright side, though, QBs are more fun in some ways. Signal callers accounted for 16% of teams’ rushes in 2023, the highest rate in NFL history. There have been more 500-yard rushing seasons by QBs in the last 10 years (35) than previous 90-plus yard rushing seasons combined (31).

Ultimately, the position isn’t in the best shape it’s ever been, as Tom Brady recently shared, but it is more polarizing and volatile than ever.