Predicting biggest NFL win total discrepancies for 2024: Vikings, Colts under the radar; Bears overrated?

NFL training camps are coming up, which means the NFL so is the season. With free agency and the NFL Draft behind us, the offseason is basically over when it comes to teams finding ways to improve. Which teams are being hyped at this stage? And which teams aren’t being talked about enough?

Next, we will try to identify the teams that can provide us with the biggest win discrepancies compared to the lines posted at bookmakers. Last year, we saw the Houston Texans go 10-7 after being predicted to win 5.5 games, while the Carolina Panthers disappointed by going 2-15 after being projected to win 7.5 games. Who will these teams be this year?

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

The Rams lost Aaron Donald this offseason, so Vegas expects them to take a few steps back in 2024. Why? LA went 10-7 last year and made the playoffs, and had a “Big Four” offense that we don’t talk about enough – probably because they suffered some injuries. The Rams went 6-2 in games with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in 2023. That offense averaged an impressive 28.5 points and 398.9 yards of total offense per game, while Stafford threw 18 touchdowns. compared to three interceptions. LA averaged 6.8 yards per play with this “Big Four” on the field!

The Rams had a decent offseason defensively — drafting Jared Verse and Braden Fiske with their first two picks — bringing back cornerback Darious Williams and signing Tre’Davious White and Kamren Curl. The NFC West is a tough division, but the Rams should post double-digit wins if they stay healthy.

This winning total has already gone up, as bettors are on the right track. The Vikings lost some notable names this offseason in Kirk Cousins ​​and Danielle Hunter, but they also added some pass rushers in Dallas Turner, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, a new running back in Aaron Jones and, of course, , JJ McCarthy.

The Michigan product wasn’t my best defender in this class, but working with Kevin O’Connell while playing for Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and hopefully TJ Hockenson is fantastic. All three surpassed 900 receiving yards last year! What if McCarthy surprises in his rookie season? Minnesota won seven games with four different quarterbacks last year. Also, in my opinion, the defense has improved – although we won’t know for sure until we get to September. I see the Vikings as a team that could surprise in 2024.

Many believe the Bears are finally on the right path. They traded Justin Fields for Caleb Williams, added D’Andre Swift at running back and welcomed back Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze at receiver. The offensive line is solid when healthy and the defense is underrated. It’s not a bad spot for a rookie quarterback, but a total of nine wins for Chicago seems pretty high. The Bears have achieved double-digit wins just once in the last decade. Are we outlining Williams as the next CJ Stroud too quickly?

I don’t wish Bears fans disappointment, but we have to understand that it’s a possibility. Although the Bears weren’t the worst team in the NFL Last year, quarterbacks selected first overall did not surpass six wins in their first season since Andrew Luck went 11-5 in 2012. Matt Eberflus was already on the hot seat, and so we’ll have to see if new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron could be the 2024 version of Bobby Slowik.

Chicago doesn’t have a tough schedule based on opponents’ winning percentage in 2023, but what if the NFC North is more competitive than we think? We’ve already discussed the Vikings, but the Bears twice face a legitimate contender in the Detroit Lions, and the Green Bay Packers also have great potential.

The Colts are one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL this upcoming season. I’m not saying the Colts’ wins over 8.5 are the best bet, but this could be a volatile team that surpasses that number. If Anthony Richardson can stay on the field, that is.

Richardson played just four games before a shoulder injury sidelined him for the rest of his rookie season, and in those four games played, he finished just one healthy. At times during those four contests, Richardson looked like he could be a star, as he became just one of four players on the NFL history of recording three or more passing touchdowns and three or more rushing touchdowns in his first four career games. With Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, as well as offensive coordinator Shane Steichen leading the charge, the Colts offense has potential.

Defensively, the Colts ranked fifth in sacks last season with 51. Four different players have recorded at least eight sacks in 2023, something no other NFL team can claim, and they are all back in 2024. In addition, the defensive front also added Laiatu Latu.

The AFC South is certainly an intriguing division. The Texans are expected to be contenders, the Jacksonville Jaguars are no pushover when healthy, and the Tennessee Titans are another team that could be better than expected. But perhaps it will be the Colts who shock the NFL world with a healthy Richardson.