Ranking rookie quarterbacks most likely to outplay their predecessor in 2024: Jayden Daniels sits atop list

Six quarterbacks were selected among the top 12 picks of 2024 NFL Draft, so these newbies will be under the microscope more than ever. Your performance will be dissected in every way compared to that of your fellow rookies, rookies across the world. NFL history, the rest of the league this season and, of course, the quarterbacks they are replacing.

History tells us it’s a coin toss that they will surpass their predecessors as newcomers. There have been 44 qualifying seasons of rookie quarterbacks selected in the first round since 2001. Twenty-three of them surpassed (or matched) their team’s quarterback from the previous season in terms of EPA (expected points added) per play. In 2023, CJ Stroud blew the Texans’ previous quarterback (Davis Mills) out of the water. Justin Herbert had big shoes to fill in 2020, but he still matched Philip Rivers’ level of play.

One of the most surprising items on this list was Zach Wilson surpassing Sam Darnold. I suppose the Jets’ quarterback play was that bad. Along the same lines, I don’t think the Patriots would be too encouraged by Drake Maye slightly surpassing what Mac Jones did in 2023, but hey, it would at least be a step forward.

First-round rookie QBs who outperformed the signal-caller they replaced

With that in mind, I’ve ranked the rookie class most likely to outperform its predecessor. At least two or three should do this considering how low the bar is. Five of the six defenders replaced were among the worst in the league last year.

2,024 Rookie Quarterbacks Most Likely to Outperform Their Predecessor

6. JJ McCarthy, Vikings (predecessor: Kirk Cousins)

JJ McCarthy is the least likely quarterback to surpass his predecessor, largely because Kirk Cousins ​​was a top-10 quarterback last year before tearing his Achilles in Week 8. McCarthy also needs to beat out Sam Darnold for the job initial, and we’re not sure what we’ll see from McCarthy anyway. He shined at Michigan, but wasn’t asked to carry the team in a run-heavy offense.

5. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons (predecessor: Desmond Ridder)

I considered Penix last on this list considering he could spend the entire season behind Kirk Cousins ​​or get injured. The scenario where Cousins ​​is injured and Penix is ​​healthy is a small slice in the Venn diagram of the Falcons’ 2024 quarterback play.

However, with Cousins ​​nursing an Achilles injury, the door is certainly open for more injuries in 2024. The bar would be low for Penix. Desmond Ridder ranked fourth in EPA per game among qualified quarterbacks last season. He has had the highest turnover rate (4.4% drops) of any quarterback over the past three seasons. If Penix is ​​forced into action, I bet he can surpass what Ridder did last year and elevate the young talent around him. Penix led the FBS in completions (60) and touchdown passes (26) of 25-plus yards through the air over the past two seasons.

4. Drake Maye, Patriots (predecessor: Mac Jones)

I expect a change when comparing the Patriots’ quarterback situation in 2023 and what Drake Maye can offer in 2024. The Patriots have one of the worst situations ever for a potential first-round quarterback, especially one as raw as Drake Maye . As Jared Dubin recently noted, they have by far the worst offensive infrastructure in the league. The Patriots’ offensive line and player skill haven’t improved much from last year, when Mac Jones posted the third-worst EPA per game in the league. When and if Maye sees the field (he is currently Jacoby Brissett’s backup), he should at least add more value to his legs, as he has rushed for over 1,000 yards the last two years at North Carolina. For this reason alone, it is in the middle of this list.

3. Bo Nix, Broncos (predecessor: Russell Wilson)

Don’t be fooled by Russell Wilson’s 26 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in 2023. It’s a good ratio, but he still recorded career lows in yards per attempt (6.9) and yards per completion (10.3). . He ranked 23rd in EPA per play, and for good measure, he was 21st in ESPN’s Total QBR.

Meanwhile, Nix could fit in well with the Broncos and Sean Payton. He set the FBS record for completion rate in a season last year, had the eighth-fastest time to throw (2.48 seconds), plus 22 touchdown passes and no interceptions on throws under 2.5 seconds . As you’ve probably heard, comparisons have been made to Drew Brees, who set the NFL completion rate record with Payton in 2018. If there’s anyone who’s going to come in and play competently right off the bat, wouldn’t it be a quarterback? with an FBS 61 record starts in college?

2. Caleb Williams, Bears (predecessor: Justin Fields)

Caleb Williams has the best group of pass-catchers of any No. 1 rookie quarterback in NFL history. He is the first quarterback drafted in the top five to inherit two receivers coming off a season with 1,200 receiving yards (DJ Moore and Keenan Allen). Chicago’s other first-round pick, Rome Odunze, led the FBS in receiving yards last year. Williams should be an upgrade with the most advanced core in the league, especially considering Justin Fields was below average a year ago.

My only concern is the coaching staff. Will new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron bring out the best in Williams and Co.? He was in Seattle last year, where Geno Smith didn’t take a step forward after a 2022 season despite the Seahawks drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round. Seattle ranked just 16th in percentage of plays with more than three WRs on the field last year, despite a trio of Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Smith-Njigba. Let’s see if Waldron puts Allen, Moore and Odunze on the field more together in 2024.

1. Jayden Daniels, Commanders (Predecessor: Sam Howell)

Daniels, the 2023 Heisman winner, is the best bet to surpass his predecessor. Sam Howell had the most interceptions, turnovers and sacks in the NFL last year, while ranking 27th among quarterbacks in EPA per play. Additionally, Daniels should be in good standing with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Kyler Murray won Offensive Rookie of the Year with Kingsbury in 2019, and Daniels arrives with a similar skill set. In fact, Murray and Daniels are the only quarterbacks in FBS history with 40 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns and 1,000 rushing yards in a season.