Corner Picks, best soccer bets, predictions, odds: Can Barcelona beat Girona stay alive in La Liga title race

Does a football season have dog days? I’ve always heard this phrase in reference to the MLB season. They talk about the “dog days of summer.” I grew up thinking it was a folklore reference to dogs lounging around the house during the summer when it was extremely hot. Turns out I was half right.

The Romans coined the term because the constellation Sirius (a dog) appeared in the night sky at the end of July, which coincided with the hottest days of the year.

I waste your time with these trivia because, in my opinion, dog days still mean tired dogs, and when I’m watching football lately, I see a lot of tired players. Coaches have been complaining for some time about the number of games their teams are forced to play, and this is the time of year when that becomes evident. Even the best teams are making mental mistakes that you don’t normally see. You watch a match between clubs still fighting to win the league or cup and you’d swear they were trying to avoid relegation.

This makes everything a little more difficult from a betting perspective. There are always certain teams you can trust to deliver a certain level of performance, but these days it feels like you’re constantly rolling the dice.

Girona vs Barcelona

Date: Saturday, May 4th | Time: 12:30 pm ET | To attend: ESPN+

Depending on the result of this match, Real Madrid could end their La Liga run this weekend. Regardless, either is unlikely to catch Madrid, but they are still in a battle for second place. This might not seem important to you, but something tells me Barcelona aren’t thrilled at the prospect of finishing behind newcomers Girona in the standings.

Unfortunately for Barça, it is a very real possibility. Girona beat Barcelona 4-2 earlier this season in Barcelona. Now, the revenge takes place at home, where Girona have lost just once in La Liga all season (3-0 to Real Madrid in September). Barcelona haven’t been terrible away from home this season, but their defense has been extremely weak lately. In the last three matches nine goals were allowed in 6.7 xG (expected goals). Yes, two matches were against PSG and Real Madrid, but they also allowed Valencia to score two goals in 2.1 xG last weekend. The choice: Girona (+170)

Liverpool x Tottenham Hotspur

Date: Sunday, May 5th | Time: 11:30am ET | To attend: Peacock

If you want to see a team weaken down the stretch, look no further than Tottenham, who lost three games in a row over the weekend. This has done real damage to their quest to overtake Aston Villa for fourth place (the final Champions League spot) in the Premier League, and life is not getting any easier. This will be Tottenham’s third game in eight days, and they still have three more games to play in the next 14. The problem is, it’s not like Liverpool are playing well.

Liverpool have managed just one win in their last four Premier League games, including a 2-0 defeat to Everton and a 2-2 draw at West Ham last week. Part of this can be explained by the fact that Liverpool’s last three league games have been away from home, but this is not a team that is firing on all cylinders these days, especially in attack. This is why I believe the total for this match is a little high. I’ve been betting heavily on Spurs games all year, but they look exhausted and although they’ve struggled to score lately, Liverpool have still been pretty solid at the back. Well, it’s solid enough to take that into account, anyway. The pick: under 3.5 (+125)

Roma x Juventus

Date: Sunday, May 5th | Time: 2:45 pm ET | To attend: Paramount+

I started writing about how the Romans coined the term “dog days of summer,” so it’s only fair to include a Rome match this week. This is a must-have for gypsies. Serie A will secure the fifth place in the Champions League, and Roma are currently in fifth place, two points ahead of Atalanta, but Atalanta have a game in hand. Meanwhile, Juventus really have nothing to lose or gain here, so you wonder a little about the kind of effort they will see. Still, I don’t see much value on the money line.

The best way to exploit Juventus’ possible lack of effort is the total. Juventus’ games averaged just 2.15 goals, the second lowest total in Serie A (Torino’s games average 1.82). However, Juve’s home games have seen fewer goals scored (1.94) than away games (2.35), while Roma score 2.12 goals at home alone. I can’t rule out Roma scoring three goals on their own here, so when I look at the energy in the balance, it looks too good to pass up. The pick: Over 2.5 (+156)

Weekend bet

This week we have a four-legged bet paying +153. This means that if we win 12 times, we will make up for our performance in the Champions League this season.

• Arsenal (-450)
• Real Madrid (-310)
• City of Manchester (-1100)
• AC Milan (-230)