Charles Jackson
Well, who could have predicted that? Borussia Dortmund are Champions League finalists after their 2-0 aggregate victory over Paris Saint-Germain. But is his appearance at Wembley the most unlikely of the Champions League era (we’re skipping the European Cup when participation was so radically different that it opened the door to all sorts of surprise finalists)? Let’s find out:
5. Chelsea, 2011-12
With all due respect to the 2004-05 Liverpool team, a Steven Gerrard shell away from elimination, this was the English champion that really shouldn’t have been. Having managed to emerge from a fairly simple group, it was no great surprise when a team under André Villas Boas was defeated 3-1 in the first leg of the round of 16 against Napoli, a defeat that cost the Portuguese coach the job. . If Roman Abramovich truly believed the season could be saved, he might not have appointed former Blue Roberto Di Matteo, whose managerial CV previously largely included West Bromwich Albion’s promotion and relegation.
What happened next was absolutely incredible, especially for the young university student who offered his friend 50-1 odds on Chelsea winning the Champions League, even at the semi-final stage (Alex Kealy, I suspect I probably still owe you those £ 250). Branislav Ivanovic’s extra-time winner defeated Napoli, but after defeating Benfica came what seemed like an impossible task against Barcelona, who won it all. Didier Drogba carried the Blues in the first leg, but the tie looked settled when Sergio Busquets and Andres Iniesta scored either side of John Terry’s red card at the Camp Nou. Ramires’ half-time strike gave the 10 men something to cling to, setting the stage for what Goal by Fernando Torres.
Without Terry, Ramires and Ivanovic among others, while David Luiz and Gary Cahill held on with plasters, Bayern Munich looked too much for Chelsea, especially with the Allianz Arena behind them for the final. They almost did, but Drogba arrived at the time in unforgettable fashion, a team that was on the verge of elimination from the round of 16 and became European champions.
4. Ajax, 1994-95
In retrospect, a team that included Edgar Davids, Edwin van der Sar, Patrick Kluivert and Marc Overmars looks like a potential European champion, but no one saw Louis van Gaal’s men as potential European champions at the start of the 1994-95 season. Then came the impressive 2-0 victory over defending champions AC Milan in the first round. From then on, they never looked back, again defeating Fabio Capello’s side away from home, before defeating Bayern Munich at the Olympisch Stadion, with Jari Litmanen scoring two brilliant goals.
They weren’t quite the same underdogs in the third meeting with Milan as they were in the first, but still, their team featured seven graduates from the academy in Vienna. One of them, 18-year-old Patrick Kluivert, would score the winning goal on a night when a young Ajax side showed a level of composure that surpassed even their more decorated opponents.
3. Monaco and 2. Porto, 2003-04
This was the year in which all the big teams blew themselves up, although Monaco and Porto certainly offered a helping hand to those within their reach on the road to Gelsenkirchen. Lyon’s good form in the group stage forced Bayern Munich into second place and a draw with Real Madrid, while Inter’s inspiring attacking line was caught up in Arsenal’s comeback from death and crashing out of the UEFA Cup. What would become The Invincibles should probably have won this competition, but were eliminated on away goals by an inferior Chelsea side who would have been impressed by the devastating attack of Dado Prso and Fernando Morientes. He had already dashed his parent club Real Madrid’s quarter-final hopes in a year where away goals played an important role.
Eventual champions Porto will forever be remembered for José Mourinho’s charge down the Old Trafford touchline after Costinha’s late goal earned them a 3-2 aggregate victory over another of the competition’s standouts, Manchester United. Had AC Milan not blown a three-goal lead against Deportivo La Coruña in the quarter-finals, Kaká and company would certainly have tasted glory, but instead Porto were left with the more negotiable opponents in the semi-final. The fourth and so far last European Cup final without representatives from England, Spain, Italy or Germany turned out to be an easy victory for Porto, inspired by Deco en route to a 3-0 victory.
1. Borussia Dortmund, 2023-24
Recency bias? You bet. On the other hand, the simple reality is that in the 20 years since Monaco and Porto played that underdog final, the richest clubs have consolidated themselves at the top of the table. The last quarter century has produced just two new Champions League winners: one the plaything of a Russian oligarch, the other a vehicle of soft power for Abu Dhabi. Borussia Dortmund have proven to be a rich choice for those richer than themselves, invariably struggling to repeat the brilliance of the early 2010s when someone richer than them stands out, among others: Robert Lewandowski, Ilkay Gundogan, Ousmane Dembele, Jadon Sancho, Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham.
This season, six of the 12 games leading up to Wembley were played against clubs backed by Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. A Dortmund team that looked quite ordinary in the Bundesliga defeated first Newcastle and then Paris Saint-Germain, who could have had the upper hand in the group stage but froze in the semi-finals. The remaining games weren’t so easy either, but Edin Terzic’s men overcame AC Milan, the bold and fearless PSV Eindhoven and then Atlético de Madrid, at a time when the tie seemed to open up for Diego Simeone’s team.
Dortmund was the team everyone wanted in the round of 16 and some would have chosen them in the round of 16 as well. No wonder. They gave up an average of 1.7 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per game, creating shots that are worth just 1.2 npxG. If it weren’t for the brilliance of Mats Hummels and Gregor Kobel, this team of promising youngsters and newcomers at the Westfalenstadion would not have come close to the final. It’s not far from a miracle what they have. It’s certainly enough to make you believe they’ll take it a step further.
