Premier League title, relegation scenarios: What Manchester City, Arsenal need as race goes to final day

The final week of Premier League games is packed with high-stakes action, including Manchester City’s 2-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur on Tuesday which reaffirmed their position as favorites to win the title.

City now go into the final day with a two-point lead over Arsenal, but both teams will need results from their respective games against West Ham and Everton to secure their lead until the final whistle. It won’t be the only race at stake on Sunday, with places in the UEFA Europa League and Conference League up for grabs, as well as the final death knell in the relegation race to be played out.

Here’s a look at the scenarios at play in the Premier League on Championship Sunday.

The race for the title

City and Arsenal remain in contention for the title on Sunday, but the defending champions enter the end of the season with an 83.5% chance of lifting the trophy for the fourth consecutive season, by Opta. Here’s a look at the scenarios each team needs to finish top of the table on the final day of the season.

City of Manchester

• A win against West Ham
• A draw or defeat against West Ham plus a draw or defeat for Arsenal against Everton

Arsenal

• A win against Everton plus a draw with Manchester City or defeat against West Ham

Qualification for Europe

Tottenham Hotspur are officially out of contention for the UEFA Champions League, but are favorites for a place in next season’s UEFA Europa League, with a 95.4% chance of finishing fifth. Chelsea and Newcastle United are still in contention, with 2.7% and 1.9% chances respectively. Chelsea and Newcastle need wins on Wednesday, when they face Brighton and Hove Albion and Manchester United respectively, to stay in contention. Manchester United, in turn, can enter the competition if they win the FA Cup.

Here’s a look at what each team needs in the battle for a Europa League spot.

Tottenham Hotspur

• A win or draw against Sheffield United if Chelsea and/or Newcastle win on Wednesday
• A defeat to Sheffield United, plus a draw or defeat for Chelsea to Bournemouth and a win or defeat for Newcastle to Brentford if Chelsea and Newcastle win on Wednesday

Newcastle United

• A win against Manchester United on Wednesday and a win over Brentford, plus a Tottenham defeat to Sheffield

Chelsea

• A win against Brighton on Wednesday and a win over Bournemouth, plus a Tottenham defeat to Sheffield

Manchester United

• Win the FA Cup against Manchester City on May 25

This group of teams is also competing to qualify for the UEFA Europa Conference League, just like Manchester United. Newcastle and Chelsea are essentially tied in this race – the former has a 47.6% chance of finishing in sixth place, while the former has a 45.5% chance. United’s chances of qualifying for European competition are just 2.6%, but the race still goes down to the final day – even with Newcastle, Chelsea and United playing on Wednesday. See how the Conference League race will play out.

Newcastle United

• Wins against Manchester United and Brentford
• Match or improve Chelsea’s score this week

Chelsea

• Wins against Brighton and Bournemouth, plus a goal difference advantage over Newcastle if they win or if Newcastle lose points
• Improving Newcastle and United’s points this week

Manchester United

• Improving Newcastle and Chelsea’s score this week

Preventing the fall

Although it may seem so, the battle against relegation is not technically over yet. While Sheffield United and Burnley are now back in the Championship, Luton Town and Nottingham Forest are fighting to avoid relegation. The scenario favors the latter thanks to the goal difference. Here’s a look at the relegation scenarios.

Nottingham Forest

• A win or draw against Burnley
• Losing to Burnley as long as they maintain their goal difference advantage over Luton Town

City of Luton

• Victory against Fulham, another Forest defeat to Burnley and overcoming the goal difference