Charles Jackson
LONDON – When the cards are as stacked in your favor as in the case of a club with the best coach, the best players, the most comprehensive administration and the most money; should it really come as close to falling apart as Manchester City did? If Heung-min Son finishes with anything resembling his usual self-belief, this could have been it, Tottenham launching themselves and City in a five-day waking nightmare.
Instead, history beckons to Manchester City. Beat West Ham United on Sunday and Pep Guardiola will have another record of his own, that of manager of the first team to win four consecutive English league titles. The bear hugs shared in front of the rapidly emptying Tottenham Hotspur Stadium said enough. David Moyes will not be allowed to do his protégé any favors on Sunday.
Guardiola may never have heard of “bum time” before the start of this week. He lived this night missing his Son.
“You know how many times Son has punished us in the last seven, eight years,” Guardiola said.
How close it came to everything falling apart, however, a horrified Tottenham fan saw one of the greatest finishers of his generation with the simplest of chances only to find Stefan Ortega’s right leg. There will never be Arsenal fans convinced that he didn’t make a mistake on purpose. It wasn’t the only moment in which Tottenham almost handed the title to their great rivals. Dejan Kulusevski almost put the ball through Ortega’s legs.
Before Erling Haaland’s 51st-minute opener, most of the threat City had created came from offside positions or Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg’s mistaken clearance. Before the penalty in the 91st minute, they had been level on ball possession, territory and expected goals (xG). Ange Postecoglu did not compromise his approach in possession, but the aggressive use of James Maddison and in particular Pape Matar Sarr as strikers gave Guardiola many headaches. Better final balls in the first half and there were chances for Tottenham to counterattack.
This may have been the first league win at this particular ground, but it was too close for comfort. The same appears to be true of the title race.
It really shouldn’t be. City came into this season masters of all they surveyed, the confusion of the Champions League finally broken, their horizons expanded now they had climbed Everest. Their bank balance wasn’t too bad either.
Despite Guardiola’s protests to the contrary on Monday, City have existed in a financial stratosphere that most of their rivals have failed to reach since being acquired by Sheikh Mansour in 2008. Their net spending over the last five years may not be what that will explode. Arsenal and Liverpool out of the water, but a wage bill estimated at over £200m eclipses the other contenders.
No other club in England, not even Manchester United, appears so immune to catastrophic recruitment mistakes such as spending £45m on Kalvin Phillips. A year later, he was replaced by Matheus Nunes, who could still be updated again in the not too distant future. All this to say nothing of the existential question that hangs over them: the 115 Premier League accusations that effectively affirm their hegemony were claimed unfairly.
The 2023-24 iteration of City has not had a beast as formidable as Liverpool on its heels for 38 games. There was no need for the champions to hit a 93, even 97 point pace just to maintain their lead.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have particularly excelled since the turn of the year, providing the kind of run that is a sine qua non for those hoping to take Guardiola seriously all the way. In fact, it is the first team since the Spaniard’s first season in charge that is on track to finish the campaign with a better non-penalty expected goal difference (npxG) than the champions-in-waiting. Yet in those first few months they conceded five points to Fulham, six to Aston Villa and West Ham in December alone. It is assumed that such a swing will kill any side facing the city’s peak long before the final day.
Maybe then, this isn’t exactly the peak city. As curious as that may be to say about a team that has dropped eight points in its last 22 games, there seems to be something that isn’t quite there. Their npxG gap may be a little better than in 2020-21, but they were able to spend the last few months of this campaign on cruise control as there was no serious opposition to the throne. Even before Tuesday’s match, City had allowed more npxG this season than in any of their previous consecutive campaigns. Not only is this due to the defensive chaos surrounding the 4-4 draw with Chelsea, but even in this series they have given up around a quarter more npxG than Arsenal.
This need not be a story of still relative decline. City lost John Stones, Ederson and Erling Haaland in important periods. Kevin De Bruyne was out for almost half the season.
“Despite all the problems we had,” Guardiola said, “we were still there. There’s something about the training, the way they live, the mentality, the mentality.”
On the other hand, De Bruyne, who limped out of this victory with an ankle injury, perhaps points to a less hopeful story for City next season. They are getting older. Bernardo Silva will have turned 30 when the next season starts, John Stones soon after it ends. They have a lot of miles on them. The same happens with Mateo Kovacic, the plaster over the abyss that Ilkay Gundogan left.
If an upgrade is required, it is unlikely to be an insurmountable challenge given the building blocks of Haaland, Phil Foden, Julian Alvarez and Josko Gvardiol. It’s even more viable with City’s financial power. If this team is removed from the title equation, it is much more likely to be due to the 115 charges than their roster construction.
There is still work to be done and Guardiola has continually insisted that he expects a game like the one they suffered two years ago, with Gundogan saving them at the death against Aston Villa when it looked like they had squandered the title to a Liverpool team that finished with 92 points.
They almost blew it again on Tuesday night. Given the quality the triple winners had at the start of the season, it’s fair to ask whether they should ever have allowed themselves to be one shot away from the son of disaster.
