Euro 2024 predictions, picking every game: Germany beat France in final, England reach semis, Italy crash out

Euro 2024 It’s almost here. Friday brings us the first game of the tournament, with hosts Germany taking on Scotland in Munich. Before that, my wife’s office sweepstakes required me to offer what might be called generous guidance on what results to expect in the tournament – it seemed a shame to waste such content. So here we go, all the Euro games, planned for your entertainment.

Considering I tried this before the 2022 World Cup and if Brazil were to win, the US were to fall out of the group stage, and Germany to top theirs, I wouldn’t be in a rush to make big bets on anything I’m saying here. But again, I said Morocco would top the group and Argentina would beat France. Stopped clocks and everything. Let’s get into it:

Group stages

A group

First round picks
Germany 3, Scotland 0
Hungary 1, Switzerland 2

Second round picks
Germany 2, Hungary 0
Scotland 2, Switzerland 2

Third round picks
Switzerland 1, Germany 3
Scotland 1, Hungary 2

There are two types of big-name hosts at big tournaments: those who are crushed by the weight of expectations or those who are created by a local fan base that falls in love with them. A bright start against Scotland in Munich ensures Germany come last, whilst Scotland never recover from a difficult start to the tournament. They give Switzerland some headaches, but Murat Yakin’s men know what it takes to reach the knockout stages – they discover they did just that by defeating Hungary early on day two.

Group B

First round picks
Spain 1, Croatia 0
Italy 1, Albania 1

Second round picks
Croatia 1, Albania 0
Spain 2, Italy 0

Third round picks
Croatia 1, Italy 1
Albania 0, Spain 2

The Group of Death claims its prize, as the defending champions are unable to escape, paying the price for a failed attack that failed to overcome the Albanian team that reached the tournament thanks to its defensive qualities. Spain start the tournament in their usual fashion, not necessarily turning their possession into expected goals, but both they and Croatia show an innate ability to do just enough.

Group C

First round picks
Slovenia 0, Denmark 1
Serbia 1, England 3

Second round picks
Slovenia 0, Serbia 1
Denmark 1, England 1

Third round picks
England 4, Slovenia 0
Denmark 3, Serbia 2

A hard-fought draw against Denmark is enough to send tremors across England, but the Three Lions respond with a stunning victory over Slovenia to secure top spot in what is one of the most layered groups. For all their attacking firepower, Serbia are perhaps guilty of being a little too enthusiastic, even

Group D

First round picks
Poland 1, Netherlands 2
Austria 1, France 3

Second round picks
Poland 1, Austria 2
Netherlands 0, France 2

Third round picks
Netherlands 3, Austria 1
France 3, Poland 0

How different could this group have been if not for injuries to Robert Lewandowski and Dutch midfield duo Frenkie De Jong and Teun Koopmeiners? Without their talismanic striker in the first game, Poland never managed to progress in this competition, while the Netherlands’ hopes of beating France were significantly damaged, resulting in The Blues flying to first place. Their argument for being champions in waiting seems hard to dispute.

Group E

First round picks
Romania 0, Ukraine 0
Belgium 2, Slovakia 0

Second round picks
Slovakia 1, Ukraine 2
Belgium 1, Romania 0

Third round picks
Slovakia 0, Romania 1
Ukraine 1, Belgium 1

The last vestiges of Belgium’s Golden Generation do the job in an extremely favorable Group E, but they hardly manage to liven up the tournament from the start and draw with Ukraine, meaning Serhiy Rebrov’s team are guaranteed an automatic qualifying place. Romania, for their part, are stubborn, if uninspired, holding out for more than enough points to secure their place in the knockout stages thanks to a late victory over Slovakia.

Group F

First round picks
Türkiye 0, Georgia 1
Portugal 3, Czech Republic 0

Second round picks
Georgia 1, Czech Republic 2
Türkiye 0, Portugal 1

Third round picks
Czech Republic 0, Türkiye 2
Georgia 1, Portugal 2

With Portugal at the top, Group F offers plenty of drama elsewhere. Tournament debutants Georgia pull off one of the surprises of the group stage, with Khvicha Kvarastkhelia inspiring them to victory over Turkey, who come back dramatically in the final game to take second place.

Third place rankings

The first four advance to the round of 16

Rounds of 16

Spain 1, Romania 0
Germany 2, Denmark 0
Portugal 3, Hungary 1
Netherlands 2, Ukraine 1 (after)
Belgium 2, Serbia 3
France 2, Türkiye 0
England 2, Georgia 0
Switzerland 1, Croatia 1 (Switzerland win on penalties)

While a 24-team European Championship opens the door to the big leagues for teams that would otherwise never have come close, it has some pretty considerable downsides. Not only does it take almost two weeks to eliminate eight teams, but when the competition reaches the round of 16, there are few contests that promise to be closely contested.

Serbia pull off the biggest upset of the round, overcoming a high-scoring thriller with Belgium, their first playoff win since competing as part of Yugoslavia. The only other result that perhaps goes against the grain is Switzerland dragging Croatia to penalties, where for the first time Luka Modric and company were at a disadvantage in the shootout, Gregor Kobel the hero of the Nati.

Quarterfinals

Spain 1, Germany 3
Portugal 2, Netherlands 0
Serbia 0, France 1
England 1, Switzerland 0 (after)

Now Europe is moving on to the big games, which are also of high quality. Germany came out of the blocks to score the first and second goals conceded by Spain in the tournament, avoiding a comeback to secure a place in the semi-final against another opponent with a 100% record. Portugal’s stars stayed in shape, the Dutch didn’t. On the other side of the bracket, France emerges victorious after a wasteful but imposing victory over Serbia. England are not as dominant, but the quality of their bench shines against a Swiss opponent exhausted by battles with Croatia at the start of the competition. Everything is set for a collision course between the four pre-tournament favorites.

Semifinals

Germany 1, Portugal 0
France 3, England 2

Much of Germany’s quality on the way to the semi-final was evident in their possession and attacking display, but this time the hosts did just enough to repel pressure from Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and Cristiano Ronaldo. The other semi-final, in turn, is a cold classic. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham stand out for England, but even Kyle Walker’s defensive intelligence is not enough to suppress Kylian Mbappe, once again a man for the biggest stage, as the now Real Madrid forward shoots The Blues to a fourth final in their last five major tournaments.

Final

Germany 1, France 1 (German victory on penalties)

As often happens in major tournaments, the best game is not the last one, with this meeting between the Germans and the French filled with more tension than quality. The hosts took the lead in the first half, but recovered towards the end, setting the stage for a half hour in which none of these exhausted teams were prepared to risk defeat in search of victory. Ultimately, Euro 2024 is decided 12 meters away, with Toni Kroos’ last action in professional football being the winning penalty that brings him the only great honor he was missing.

It’s a beautiful story. Will it really work like this? Almost certainly not, that is the joy of euros. It rarely turns out the way you expect.