Mexico at Copa America: Stakes high, expectations low for an El Tri in transition

Mexico will arrive at this summer’s Copa América facing a unique conundrum: how does a team manage heightened risks when expectations are lower than they have been in recent years?

Once the gold standard in North America, El Tri’s star fell after a series of inconsistent results and administrative chaos. The downward trend can be traced as far back as the 2022 World Cup, when their unimpressive pre-tournament results were a precursor to their elimination in the group stage, marking the first time they have failed to advance to the knockout stages since 1990. Mexico also is in your way. third manager in the last two years – Gerardo Martinez left after the World Cup, while his successor Diego Cocca lasted just seven games before being sacked. Jaime Lozano then took over and steadied the ship by winning the Concacaf Gold Cup last summer, but Mexico’s malaise returned soon after.

The Copa América, in theory, offers Mexico the chance to restart its biggest tournament since the disappointment of 2022 and ahead of the 2026 World Cup, which will take place partly at home. Leaving behind their recent struggles may be easier said than done for El Tri, something the Mexican faithful seem to recognize – even if their lofty demands have not wavered.

Ahead of a tournament that could set the tone for Mexico’s path to the 2026 World Cup, here are their chances to impress.

A favorable group

Mexico won the draw by being placed in one of the softest groups in the Copa América, alongside Jamaica, Venezuela and Ecuador. El Tri is the highest-ranked team in Group C, according to FIFA’s imperfect rankings, and is the oddsmakers’ favorite in each of its matches. Mexico also has a favorable record against lower-ranked opponents in the Western Hemisphere, recently recording a 3-0 victory over Panama and a 1-0 victory over Bolivia. A favorable draw, however, is a double-edged sword: as arguably the best team in the group, Mexico will need to act like it to impress.

There are a number of areas to address on the pitch to ensure Mexico are at their best in their first game against Jamaica on Saturday, the main one being attack. Their attack has been on a roll in recent months, going goalless in three of their last eight games, and El Tri also arrive at the Copa América without a proven goalscorer. Uriel Antuna is the World Cup goalscoring leader with 13, while none of the forwards listed – including Feyenoord’s Santiago Gimenez – boast more than six international goals.

Lozano will have the ability to tinker, including in goal, as he explores the group of players without 38-year-old Guillermo Ochoa this time, but he has limited time to do so. The group stage will be the opportunity to find a functional version of a young Mexican team – or pay the price for deficiencies once the knockout stages arrive.

Make or break knockouts

As favorites to win Group B, a quarter-final clash against the Group A runners-up – likely Canada or Peru – awaits. The odds could also swing in Mexico’s favor here, but a high-quality performance will likely be required from El Tri when the end of the tournament begins. But it might not happen – our Chuck Booth predicts that Mexico will fall in the group stage.

However, should they reach the semi-finals, a meeting with Lionel Messi’s Argentina is almost guaranteed. Mexico will be the underdogs against the reigning World Cup winners, but their inability to perform against higher-ranked opposition suggests trouble could lie ahead. El Tri have kept just three clean sheets in their last eight games, conceding multiple goals in defeats to the USA in the Concacaf Nations League final, Brazil and Uruguay. They simply don’t rise to the occasion in these top tier matches, always looking like an inferior team.

Regardless of how deep their run in the Copa América is, the qualifiers will likely define Mexico’s tournament based on performances rather than actual results – especially if they face high-profile opposition. That will be the true measure of Mexico’s progress ahead of the 2026 World Cup, especially after months of not giving their fans anything to be optimistic about. If they emerge from this summer’s tournament with another series of unimpressive performances, it will only increase the pressure on Lozano and co to improve with less than two years to go until the World Cup on home soil. Doing so in such a short time can be an insurmountable obstacle.