Catherine Rusoff
MIAMI —The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release its forecast this Thursday for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1.
NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) will announce expected storm activity for the next months, and will explain the climatic factors that influence the development of hurricanes. NOAA and FEMA are also expected to provide guidance on how the public can prepare before a potential storm impacts their area.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30th, with the greatest activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Other predictions for the 2024 hurricane season
Researchers at the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project predicted in April an “extremely active” 2024 season, including 23 named storms. Previous years have averaged 14.4 named storms. His prediction included a 62% chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane hitting the continental US coast, an increase over the average forecast of 43%.
Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability jumped from 21% to 34% – which was the average probability from 1880-2020. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, the increase was greater. Researchers predicted a 42% probability in this area, up from the 27% average in previous years.
Stephanie Abrams, meteorologist for The Weather Channel, also made a similar prediction, telling “CBS Mornings” in March that rising air and ocean temperatures around the world could set the stage for an “explosive hurricane season.”
According to NOAA, four of the 15 deadliest and most destructive hurricanes recorded has happened in the last 25 years.
A look back at the 2023 hurricane season
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season finished as the fourth busiest among the most cited storms. It concluded with 20 named storms, seven of which developed into hurricanes and of those three intensified into major hurricanes.
There were three storms that made landfall in the US. Two tropical storms made landfall, one in Texas and one in North Carolina.
The only hurricane to make landfall was Idália. It made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on August 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge flooding of 7 to 12 feet and widespread flooding in Florida and throughout the Southeast.
According to NOAA, four of the 15 deadliest and most destructive hurricanes recorded has happened in the last 25 years.
