Texas’ Tony Gonzales tries to fight off YouTube personality in runoff election where “anything can happen”

The Texas Republican Party gathered in San Antonio for its annual convention this weekend, but the G.O.P. Representative Tony Gonzaleswho represents part of San Antonio and lives there, was ambivalent about participating.

That’s not entirely surprising — one of the featured speakers was Rep. Matt Gaetz, who supported Gonzales’ opponent Brandon Herrera in Tuesday’s GOP primary runoff in the 23rd District. The Texas Republican Party censured Gonzales last year for his vote in favor gun control legislation supported by Biden White Houseintroduced following the 2022 Uvalde school shooting which killed 19 students and two teachers. Uvalde is also in the 23rd District.

Gonzales had four Republican opponents in the March primary, which stretches 800 miles from San Antonio along the U.S.-Mexico border to El Paso. Gonzales was unable to secure 50% of the vote, forcing him into a runoff with Herrera, the second most voted. The winner of the second round will face Democrat Santos Limon in November.

Herrera won just 24% of the vote in the March primary, but the runoff was a headache for Gonzales. With the runoff date well after the primaries and no major electoral contests, turnout will likely be low.

“If this were a high turnout election, [Gonzales] would be a lock,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. In a low-turnout election, “anything can happen,” he said, because the most ardent voters are those who go to the polls. Jones said the candidate needs to “mobilize a handful of the most die-hard supporters” to win.

That could be a challenge for Gonzales, who has positioned himself as the pragmatic choice, compared to Herrera, a 28-year-old YouTube celebrity known as “The AK Guy” who continually criticizes Gonzales over his vote on gun legislation.

“What we’re seeing in Congressional District 23 is the story we see throughout Texas politics,” said Joshua Blank of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, Austin, “which is that an incumbent, usually a Republican lawmaker, takes a position that is not 100% aligned with the most conservative voters in your district.”

This “creates the conditions for a primary challenger to try to unseat that member,” Blank said. He suggested that Uvalde’s vote had exactly the following effect: “You can’t separate what’s going on there and the fact that an extremist gun rights personality on YouTube is now in a runoff against him.”

Since the March primary, Gonzales has received support from Republican establishment figures, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. In addition to Gaetz, Herrera has been endorsed by other members of the House Freedom Caucus.

In response to these endorsements, Gonzales said on CNN in March that he works “with some real scoundrels” and told CBS News in a recent interview that these lawmakers and his opponent are “not serious people.”

“There’s a bigger battle going on outside of this race, and what does the future of the Republican Party look like?” Gonzales said. “Will we govern conservatives like me, or will these bomb-throwing gestures want to come here and burn the place down?”

Herrera’s far-right campaign and alliance with Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus appear to align him with former President Donald Trump, but Trump has not supported the race and has said little about it. However, on his YouTube radio show, Herrera joked about Trump’s son, Barron Trump, and said Trump could not win the general election.

Gonzales tried to position himself as a “MAGA” candidate and supported Trump’s presidential campaign.

Given the support of establishment Republicans, Gonzales significantly outperformed Herrera in the race. Gonzales has raised $3.4 million through May 8, compared to Herrera’s $367,000 over the same period.

Gonzales attacked Herrera for only moving to the district in recent years, while Herrera took advantage of Gonzales’ 2022 vote for the bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which included a provision for the “boyfriend” loophole for gun purchases, The first time any type of gun control legislation has passed Congress since the 1990s. Gonzales was one of 14 Republicans who voted for the bill.

In a recent interview with CBS News, Gonzales defended his vote and said he “worked very hard” to ensure the legislation “protected the Constitution, but also solved some problems.”

“What it did was increase background checks on minors, and I think that’s a positive thing,” Gonzales said.

Gonzales told “Face the Nation” on Sunday, he “knew at the time” he voted on the 2022 bill that it would hurt him politically, but insisted he is not “afraid of this vote.”

Although the district includes much of the U.S.-Mexico border area, immigration has not been as contentious an issue as gun control. University of Texas at San Antonio political science professor Jon Taylor noted that Gonzales once tried to position himself as being more pragmatic on the border, but has since moved further to the right, much closer to Herrera on the issue.

Gonzales was first elected in 2020 after Republican Rep. Will Hurd decided not to run again. In 2018, Hurd narrowly defeated Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones by just 1,000 votes. The 23rd District was once considered the “only swing district in Texas,” Blank says, but redistricting after the 2020 election made it considerably redder, which allowed an extremist candidate like Herrera to win more votes.

If Herrera wins the primary, Blank said it’s an “open question whether Herrera is an electable candidate in the general election — even in a district that favors Republicans.”